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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (48) 684
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (48) 684
November 19 – 25, 2007
Main political trends of the week
The main newsmaker last week was again Vladimir Putin despite that the week was full of various events. For the most part this is due to officials’ working to rally voters for the president. The meeting to support Putin at the Luzhniki arena uncovered the president’s eagerness to have not just an instrument to control domestic politics but also an opportunity to address the people. Besides, for the first time in his public speeches the head of state used the term “inner enemy,” which may indicate impending “purge” in the government.
With the general election just around the corner competition between parties is escalating. KPRF still holds the monopoly in the left field, despite the attempts of A Just Russia and The Patriots of Russia to squeeze in here. The communist party is planning to reiterate its “opposition” to the power with rallies scheduled for 3-5 December if the results of alternative counting of votes will diverge sharply from official results. So far, the communists have been successfully imitating opposition, which helps them to keep the reputation of “the last hope of democracy in Russia” (citation from newspaper Guardians).
Ahead of the general election, “genuine” opposition is stirring up too, organizing Dissenters’ Marches in several cities including Moscow. Preliminary results of the rallies seem controversial. On the one hand, they failed to attract as many people as they did in spring 2007 and the attempts to make a real march were cut short by police. On the other hand, the organizers may benefit from the arrests of the Kremlin-critical opposition leaders.
The continuing case against Storchak reveals fully-fledged conflict in the Russian elite. For the first time in the history of post-Soviet Russia a head of the service, in which the arrested had worked, refused to admit his subordinate was guilty. The “Storchak’s case” also shows that the situational alliance between Investigation Committee and Federal Security Service is turning into a strategic union. Arrests of high brass officials continue – last week police arrested four employees of Agriculture Ministry’s oversight agency Rosselkhoznadzor on graft charges.
Major events Nov 19, 2007 - Nov 25, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| For Putin gathering at the Luzhniki arena in Moscow | The president will continue developing ways to address the people | ||
| Evgeny Shkolov appointed deputy minister of interior | Rashid Nurgaliyev | In the future Shkolov will very likely become the minister | |
| The main suspects in the Nevsky Express case face official charges | FSB, Investigation Committee | Rashid Nurgaliyev | The turf war between the three security agencies will continue |
| Deputy Minister of Finance Storchak faces official charges | Investigation Committee, FSB | Aleksey Kudrin | This conflict will develop |
| Arrests of several high brass officials of Agriculture Ministry | Investigation Committee | Sergei Dankvert, Aleksey Gordeyev | Agriculture Ministry will renounce the arrested officials |
| Supreme Court banned Armen Shaginyan from entering LDPR’s election ticket | LDPR | The next candidate to be banned – God Nisanov – will be allowed to take part in the election | |
| Igor Rudenya appointed head of government’s regional development and staff department | Aleksey Gordeyev | It will be easier for Gordeyev to control the passing of his initiatives through government | |
| the government authorized the new organization charter of the Russian Academy of Sciences. | Mikhail Kovalchuk | Yuri Osipov | It is possible that Kovalchuk will be elected president of RAS |
| Vladimir Putin takes part in the annual gathering of military heads. | Anatoly Serdyukov | The purge in the ministry of defense will continue, Commander of the Rear Vladimir Isakov may be fired | |
| Vladimir Putin met with the hierarchs of the Russian Orthodox Church | Vladimir Putin, ROC heads | Cooperation between the Kremlin and ROC will continue | |
| Economic Development and Trade Ministry is said to have plans to open domestic trade department | Kirill Androsov | After appointment as head of the department Androsov will have received compensation for the loss of authority after Alexandra Levitskaya was appointed deputy head of EDTM | |
| Bus explosion in Northern Osetia | Rashid Nurgaliyev | The possible fierce reaction from security officials to this terrorist attack may lead to a new wave of angry reactions amongst the citizens of the republics of North Caucuses |
Volume: 17 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
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The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007