Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (52) 688

December 17 - 23, 2007

Main political trends of the week

Despite that the “successor” was picked, discussions of power transition 2008 remained hot last week. Vladimir Putin said “yes” to Dmitry Medvedev and agreed to become the head of the government after leaving the president post. In the mean time, we have serious doubts as to whether such scenario is realistic. It is not likely that without diverting presidential authority to prime minister Vladimir Putin will be able (even formally) to act both as Medvedev’s subsidiary and keep the “national leader” status. Most likely, he will change his decision after March 2 2008.

Another noticeable intrigue is the distribution of posts in the fifth State Duma. United Russia suddenly abandoned its “total domination” tactic that it had stuck to in the previous Duma and said it was ready to share top positions in Duma committees with “minority parties.” Most likely, this is a result of an order from the Kremlin to concede committees to A Just Russia. In the mean time, fierce competition is on inside United Russia for main executive positions, which may last until the end of the New Year holidays.

Rightist players showed intense competition too. In particular, the leader of the Yabloko’s youth group Ilya Yashin said he would run for party leader in the middle of 2008. Although his chances look slim, this is a trouble sign for Grigory Yavlinski, whose leader status has been seriously undermined. It is possible that he will face strong competition from a St. Petersburg nominee Mikhail Amosov, who may be backed by many regional branches.

SPS looks more stable. Although its administration had resigned, it was successfully reelected. One of the main reasons for that is the need to consolidate resources to back Boris Nemtsov, who last week was registered by the Central Elections Commission as presidential contender. Although his chances, as well as those of another rightist oppositionist Mikhail Kasyanov to collect 2 million signatures are not very high, he will still be able to get in the news and advertise. Another candidate of the “liberals” – Andrei Bogdanov – is in fact Dmitry Medvedev’s double-ganger. Two other candidates used the privilege of general election winners - Gennady Zyuganov and Vladimir Zhirinovsky. So at least 6 candidates are running for president next year.

Despite that the choice of the “successor” has been made, power clans go on with the turf war. It seems that the “security officials” clan remains strong. Last week this clique managed to mobilize reserves and make GPO postpone probe into the Investigation Committee until spring 2008, which may eventually lead to freezing of the whole operation. Besides, the case against Storchak initiated by the representatives of this power group goes on.

Major events Dec 17, 2007 - Dec 23, 2007

Volume: 17 pages