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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (1-3) 689-691
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (1-3) 689-691
December 24, 2007 - January 13, 2008
Main political trends of the weeks
In the first week after holidays the presidential race became active again. Dmitry Medvedev frequented TV screen and newspapers, while Vladimir Putin stepped back to allow his successor to win popularity of voters. First statements made by Medvedev during his tour around the country show that he sees his main goal in adding modernization impulse to Russia.
Medvedev’s nomination as successor has not slowed down political infighting between power clans. In particular, Kremlin’s security officials clan (or siloviki) continue competing with their opponents. Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Storchak’s custody was prolonged, which is clearly damaging the reputation of Aleksey Kudrin, who had asked to release Storchak on bail. In the mean time, attainment of government control of Bashkiria’s fuel and energy industry – the process lobbied by the siloviki-friendly Federal Tax Service – has stopped.
After the New Year holidays, infighting was active on lower levels of power too. In particular, the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service started on the Russian Federal Service for Ecological, Technical and Atomic Supervision (or Rostekhnadzor), whose chief Konstantin Pulikovsky has recently concentrated powerful instruments in his hands to press on small and medium businesses. Besides, the longstanding competition between Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev and Deputy Head of the Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resource Usage (or Rosprirodnadzor) Oleg Mitvol on the one side and Mitvol’s boss Sergei Sai – on the other – is drawing to an end. It is highly likely that it will wind up with the resignation of the latter – Sai announced resignation at the end of December.
Despite the shuffle in the Healthcare and Social Development Ministry and its services in 2007 (resignations of the Federal Insurance Fund Chief Galina Karelova and Pension Fund Chief Gennady Batanov) no changes in the respective spheres are expected. Such idea is supported by the appointment of the former head of the ministry Mikhail Zurabov as president’s advisor.
Vladimir Putin’s position after resignation as president of Russia remains one of the big questions that watchers discuss. It is possible that the Security Council Status bill proposed to the State Duma at the end of December had been prepared especially for Putin.
Major events Dec 24, 2007 - Jan 13, 2008
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev promised to announce his election program soon | Dmitry Medvedev | Most likely, the program will balance between increasing state investments into social sphere and reformation of the social sphere | |
| Boris Nemtsov withdrew his candidacy for the presidential election | Mikhail Kasyanov | Kasyanov will not likely be able to register for the presidential election and become the only representative of rightist opposition | |
| Resignation of Pension Fund Head Gennady Batanov confirmed | Tatyana Golikova | Mikhail Zurabov’s appointment (officially unconfirmed) as president’s advisor means that his line in the pension fund will continue | |
| Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Storchak’s custody is prolonged | Kremlin’s security officials | Aleksey Kudrin | Most likely, the “Storchak’s case” will wind up with his release and accusation of other suspects |
| The 9th Arbitrage Court overruled the resolution on one of the four cases of Bashkiria fuel&energy assets’ seizure | «Kremlin’s security officials, Federal Tax Service | Final decision will be announced after May 2008 | |
| it is informed that Rosprirodnadzor Head Sergei Sai gave notice of resignation before the New Year’s. | Oleg Mitvol, Yuri Trutnev | Sergei Sai | Sai will be replaced by someone less scandalous than Mitvol |
| Anti-Monopoly Service ordered to Rostekhnadzor to correct violations | Igor Artemyev | Konstantin Pulikovsky | Rostekhnadzor will be able to contest this order in court |
| Dmitry Rogozin appointed Russian plenipotentiary in NATO | Dmitry Rogozin | Radical nationalist circles | Moderate leaders of nationalist groups will be more loyal to power |
| last week newspapers published an interview of Alexander Voloshin | Alexander Voloshin | The informational campaign aimed at returning Voloshin back to big politics will continue | |
| Security Council Status bill proposed to the State Duma | Sergei Mironov, Kremlin’s siloviki | Discussion of the bill will be delayed |
Volume: 17 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
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The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007