Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (5) 693

January 21 - 27, 2008

Main political trends of the week

The main topic of the last week was again the presidential campaign, which is unambiguously dominated by the handpicked successor Dmitry Medvedev. For the first time for a little over month we see significant difference between Medvedev’s positioning now and Vladimir Putin’s positioning back in 1999-2000. Then Putin assumed the role of a strict and straight-out leader, who must save the country from collapse, whereas Medvedev is positioned as an adherent to “modernization” and evolution, oriented on a dialogue with civil society. Also the two politicians have different views on the results of the 1990’s. If Vladimir Putin in November heavily criticized this period, Dmitry Medvedev has generally positive estimation, pointing, however, to the high price the country had to pay for the transformations. One monologue of the successor is particularly interesting – the one, in which he urged the government to transform fight on corruption into another national project. If this is not just pre-election rhetoric but a start of a large-scale project, it is possible that combat against corruption will be the main instrument to replace senior officials after Medvedev’s inauguration.

Last week KPRF’s administration surprised watchers with its unexpected move related to the presidential race, however, this surprise did not last long. Publication of the rumor about possible refusal of Gennady Zyuganov to run for president, which was later confirmed by the communist leader, questioned legitimacy or even legality of the election. However, the intrigue did not live long – on Saturday Zyuganov announced that he would not take his candidacy from the ballot.

Despite the continuing increase of Medvedev’s popularity among voters, the elite are still not consolidating but instead competing for domination in various spheres. For the first time since November 2007 this turf war again threatens stability of the system in general. The arrest of international entrepreneur Semyon Mogilevich, who was one of those, who proposed the existing system of gas transportation via Ukraine, may lead to a sleaze war, involving senior officials, which will have a negative effect on the government’s popularity among people.

The turf war inside the government continues too. The conflict in the Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resource Usage (or Rosprirodnadzor) received continuation already after the appointment of Vladimir Kirillov as its head. Oleg Mitvol insisted that he will have to step down anyways. In the mean time, it is still unlikely that he is being serious. Most likely, Mitvol will try to stay in his post until May, when the new government will be formed, to set up a claim to head of the service position, whose authority will likely be expanded.

Another conflict in the government – search for someone to blame for sharp increase of prices. Last week, Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin (considered to be one of the most likely candidates to become the next prime minister) was appointed head of the inflation containment commission. Minister of Economic Development and Trade Elvira Nabiullina and Minister of Agriculture Aleksei Gordeyev were appointed his deputies in the commission. So PM Viktor Zubkov in good time took measures to have someone to shoulder responsibility for high inflation to, choosing the top representatives of the liberal team and thus won the first round of the fight.

Major events Jan 21, 2008 - Jan 27, 2008

Volume: 15 pages