 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (8) 696
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (8) 696
February 11-17, 2008
Main political trends of the week
Last week was in many ways the opposite of the previous one in Russian politics. Political infighting was just a background for ideological succession of power because the both presidents – incumbent and future – put out a statement that may be seen as policy statement.
Successor’s speech left a mixed impression. On the one hand, as expected, the policy statement was within the framework outlined by Vladimir Putin in his speech at the Security Council conference a week before – Medvedev stressed succession of ideas at the onset of his statement. On the other hand, his theses were quite vague, although it had been expected that they would be very specific. It was obvious that the presidential candidate liked the ideas developed during the first Putin’s tenure better.
During the last annual press conference, the incumbent president paid significant attention to the structure of the next government. First, this confirms his plans to assume prime minister chair. Secondly, government 2008 will abandon the fundaments of the administrative reform launched in 2004 and presumably will have more state committees. Finally, instead of PM – ministers bond, the dominating tandem will be vice prime minister – heads of state committees.
Reshuffle continued as well. One of emblematic firings was that of the head of Federal Railroad Transport Agency Igor Romashov. The former official used to work in the services controlled by oil trader Gennady Timchenko, lobbying for his interests on the government level. Probable appointment of Romashov as a Rosneft executive will mean that the alliance between this company and Gennady Timchenko has cemented. At the same time, positions of RZD Head Vladimir Putin will strengthen because he has got rid of a serious rival, who was pushing for changes in the balance in the railroad market in favor of private-run operators.
Apart from reshuffle in the government, we saw turnover in public organization that continued intensification of state’s domination. In particular, replacement of Sotsprof Union Leader Sergei Khramov, who had been in the position since 1989, for a UR deputy Sergei Vostretsov will allow the Kremlin to neutralize one of the most influential independent trade unions. Discontinuation of Boris Nemtsov’s membership in SPS may be the first sign of preparations for the merger of this party with the pro-Kremlin’s Civil Force and DPR.
Major events Feb 10, 2008 - Feb 17, 2008
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Dmitry Medvedev takes the floor at the Economic Forum in Krasnoyarsk | Dmitry Medvedev |
| The successor will make his next policy statement only when he appears with presidential state of the nation address |
Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference | Vladimir Putin |
| Probably, Vladimir Putin will claim PM office |
Sergei Ivanov appears at the International Security Conference in Munich | Sergei Ivanov |
| Ivanov will continue trying to maintain reputation of one of the top federal officials |
Post of Russia Head Andrei Kazmin says the Post has to be transformed into a state corporation | Andrei Kazmin |
| This idea will not be well received |
Igor Romashov is fired from Federal Railroad Transport Agency | Gennady Timchenko, Vladimir Yakunin | Igor Levin | Probably, Romashov’s appointment as vice president of Rosneft will strengthen Timchenko’s foothold in the oil company |
Sotsprof Union Head Sergei Khramov is replaced by Sergei Vostretsov | UR |
| This trade union may become UR’s first target on the course to expand into trade unions sphere |
Discontinuation of Boris Nemtsov’s membership in SPS | Anatoly Chubais | Boris Nemtsov | In several months we expect beginning of merger of SPS and Yabloko with DPR and Civil Force |
Dmitry Medvedev says ESPO must be completed in 2008 | Dmitry Medvedev | Nikolai Tokarev | ESPO project will be completed in 2008 |
A proposal to establish a unified center of expertise and control is introduced in the government | Konstantin Pulikovsky |
| The head of Rostekhnadzor will continue trying to keep his watchdog alive but a final decision will be made only right ahead of new government formation |
Roman Rudakov passes away |
| Anatoly Serdyukov | This event will be followed by short term splash of publications in mass media but will not seriously damage the reputation of the minister of defense |
REN-TV and Petersburg Channel Five merger under the auspices of one media holding | Yuri Kovalchuk |
| This even is a technical procedure and will result only in optimization of management costs |
Volume: 14 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007