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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (9) 697
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (9) 697
February 18-24, 2008
Main political trends of the week
As expected, ideological trend has been replaced by the more traditional turf war of elite clans. Despite that the president campaign is drawing to an end, this has no effect on its intensity. The main reason for this is that everybody knows, who’s the favorite and the outsider and the gap between the leader and other presidential runners. The only intrigue is precise Dmitry Medvedev’s result in the election. In the mean time, successor’s image that was created in the course of the election campaign is quite controversial and his priorities for the first presidential term are unclear.
Currently, the Medvedev’s team is only forming. However, it is already obvious that it is pretty scattered, we already see conflicts between different groups in it and conflicts inside each of the group. In particular, entrepreneur Alisher Usmanov wants to take part in the conflict, in which another entrepreneur affiliated with Medvedev is already involved – Oleg Deripaska, and the Head of the Federal Bailiff Service Nikolai Vinnichenko is attempting to deprive the Federal Property Fund headed by Yuri Petrov of the right to sell confiscated goods.
The uncertainty pushes other players, who are more distant from the future president, to energetic efforts. They are trying to take control of the larges possible amount of financial and administrative assets in order to sacrifice a part of them in the future just to keep the main part. In particular, last week Sergei Chemezov once again increased his efforts expressing interests to more assets and spheres. Apart from that, the standoff between the Investigation Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin and Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika continues. Finally, representatives of presidential administration’s economic block started moving to the government, which may mean optimistic future for the Economic Development and Trade Ministry.
As CPKR experts had predicted, competition for control of Rosprirodnadzor is escalating because the new head of the watchdog – Vladimir Kirillov – is a way more experienced administrator than his predecessor Sergei Sai and may expect support from influential elite clans. However, we see one tendency in this conflict: the ‘arbiter’ is not trying to take a side in this conflict and settle the dispute but prefers to give compensations to them for their losses, delaying final settlement, probably until new government establishment. Such ‘uncertainty’ may encourage elite players to proceed with more aggressive competition and make attempts to conquer new spheres.
Major events Feb 18, 2008 - Feb 24, 2008
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Publication of Medvedev’s interview to Itogi | Dmitry Medvedev |
| We are not expecting any more large interviews during the current presidential campaign |
PM Viktor Zubkov speaks at the General Prosecutor’s Office conference | Yuri Chaika | Alexander Bastrykin | Authority balance between the two services will remain stable at least until mid 2008, if the government is not dissolved ahead of time |
Transneft CEO Nikolai Tokarev says ESPO cannot be commissioned in 2008 | Dmitry Medvedev | Nikolai Tokarev, Rosneft heads | This announcement may be used by Medvedev later to prove that Tokarev must be fired |
Aleksei Kudrin appointed head of anti-inflation panel |
| Aleksey Kudrin | Kudrin’s rivals in the government will not be able to speak of blame him from inflation |
Publication of Rosprirodnadzor Head Vladimir Kirillov’s order banning his deputies to turn to other government services officially | Vladimir Kirillov | Oleg Mitvol | This move will spoil the velvet of deputy head of Rosprirodnadzor position |
Vladimir Kirillov asks Minister of Natural Resources Yuri Trutnev to fire Oleg Mitvol | Vladimir Kirillov | Oleg Mitvol | This time, request from Rosprirodnadzor head may be satisfied, but the probability is not high |
Appointment of Andrei Klepach and Stanislav Voznesensky as deputy heads of EDTM | Arkady Dvorkovich, Elvira Nabiullina |
| EDTM will not be abolished in the course of government reorganization |
Acting Head of Defense Ministry’s Quartering Service Viktor Vlasov commits suicide |
| Anatoly Serdyukov | It is possible that this incident may force Serdyukov to put the “purge” in the Ministry of Defense on hold |
Searches in Slavneft’s headquarters | Vadim Moshkovich |
| The raid will have negative impact on the company’s value |
Russian Technology Corporation Chief Sergei Chemezov proposes to include producer of anti-missile systems FGUP into the state corporation | Sergei Chemezov |
| Chemezov will continue trying to conquer various spheres, including those that are not directly affiliated with military-industrial complex |
Volume: 14 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007