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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (11) 699
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (11) 699
March 3 – 9, 2008
Elite expecting reshuffle
Political life continues slowing down ahead of the “big reshuffle”. Last week’s main event was the drawing of the presidential election results. Government players, fearing to undermine their own interests, did not make any serious steps, and the standoff between elite clans moved to provinces and spilled in mass media.
Despite that the results of the presidential ballot was predictable, shortly after their announcement we see competition for their interpretation, especially of Dmitry Medvedev’s results. Experts are trying to answer the question whether the successor managed to outstrip Putin’s result in 2004? There is no unambiguous answer because in percentage terms he didn’t but in absolute terms (considering high turnout) Dmitry Medvedev got around 3 million votes more. It is possible that this fact will be used by his disciples as an argument for greater independency already at the first stage of power succession.
The quietness in the government domain was breached by leaks in the mass media of efforts of certain players, who prefer to conceal them. In particular, Sergei Chemezov, who in 2007 was considered one of the most influential lobbyists in Russia, has found itself surrounded by “enemies.” Partly conceding control of the Russian Technology Corporation to the Zubkov-Serdyukov tandem, he faced a new obstacle in the form of the government’s Military-Industrial Commission headed by Sergei Ivanov. Since this conflict is about an important issue – capital stock of the state corporation – it is possible that this time Chemezov will have to accept concessions.
In other news, the standoff between the General Prosecutor’s Office and the Investigation Committee continued. This time it spilled in mass media not as a result of another stage of the turf war but as a result of a focused informational campaign organized by the elite groups supporting Yuri Chaika against Alexander Bastrykin. It is quite possible that this will have negative consequences for the IC chief because Vladimir Putin has repeatedly expressed discontent with taking conflicts to public, especially by security officials.
There are also first signs of elite’s preparation for reshuffle. In particular, the State Duma authorized the bill allowing the president to lift ban on combining offices for state officials. This measure will be necessary to reshuffle elite – if it is impossible to find an office for a fired person that would match his ambitions, they will be offered two or more offices at the same time.
Major events March 3 - March 9, 2008
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Announcement of presidential election results | Dmitry Medvedev, Gennady Zyuganov, Andrei Bogdanov | Fight for interpretations of the election results will escalate as tension around the future government staff grows | |
Vladimir Putin meets with the Cabinet of Ministers | Vladimir Putin | The incumbent president will continue making statements that will confirm his plans to become prime minister | |
Vladimir Putin instructs Dmitry Medvedev to organize State Council Presidium conferences | Dmitry Medvedev | Vladimir Putin will stick to the ‘gradual’ handing down of authority to the successor | |
Vladimir Putin signs decree “On the status of newly elected and incumbent president of the Russian Federation” | Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev | Medvedev will get insignificant additional resources to form his own team | |
Viktor Zubkov speaks at the government meeting | Viktor Zubkov | Anatoly Chubais | This speech is a consequence of the prime minister’s increased status and is an attempt to 'save face' |
Kremlin-critical opposition holds rallies in Moscow and St. Petersburg | Garry Kasparov, Eduard Limonov | Disloyal opposition will not organize any more protest rallies in the nearest time | |
Standoff between Sergei Chemezov and the Military-Industrial Commission over stock capital of the Technology Corporation | Sergei Ivanov, Vladislav Putilin | Sergei Chemezov | Chemezov will have to make concessions |
Yabloko St. Petersburg Leader Maksim Reznik arrested | Authorities will speed up establishment of a unified rightist party | ||
Reports on the resignation of the former Head of Federal Tax Service Legal Department Anton Ustinov | Mikhail Mokretsov | Kremlin’s siloviki | The purge in the FTS of the siloviki henchmen will continue |
Another round of turf war between GPO and IC | Yuri Chaika | Alexander Bastrykin | GPO’s probe will take place, its results will be announced to publicity |
Valery Gayevsky appointed deputy head of Regional Development Ministry | Dmitry Kozak | Gayevsky has been in the Kozak’s team for a long time, therefore his appointment will not change balance of forces in the ministry | |
Publication of Defense Ministry’s plans to lobby for the amendment extending maximum service term for officers | Anatoly Serdyukov | Serdyukov will continue seeking support from generals | |
UR Leader Boris Gryzlov announces plans to open Club 2020 in the Center for Socio-Conservationist Policy | Boris Gryzlov | Boris Gryzlov and UR will be protecting monopoly for Putin’s Plan | |
State Duma authorized amendments lifting ban for certain categories of state officials to combine offices | This provision will be one of the key instruments to redistribution senior officials during power transit |
Valume: 14 pages
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007