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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (12) 700
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (12) 700
March 10 - 16, 2008
Tandem 'trial run' amid infighting escalation
Last week we saw indications that alignment of the Russian political elite will remain unchanged for the next 6 weeks and government reshuffle will happen after the inauguration. This has encouraged several government players to increase their efforts and political infighting has intensified again (although not to the level of October-November 2007). The players are watching closely how relations inside the Putin-Medvedev tandem are developing.
Last week the pattern of interaction inside this duumvirate was given a trial run. It seems that at first Vladimir Putin will have absolute leadership in it, which does not, however, exclude that he will be taking into account Dmitry Medvedev’s views on key issues. As for the successor, he continues gaining presidential regalia and authority; in particular, he has assumed permanent office in the Kremlin. These facts indicate that the two politicians have managed to find compromise and the hopes of several political forces for a large-scale conflict between “two presidents” are fading.
Now that the government reshuffle is on hiatus, which is likely to last at least six weeks, infighting and turf wars may escalate. In particular, the final stage of the sale of the most valuable property of the Ministry of Defense has made several players, who have their own plans for these assets increase their efforts, for example, RFFI, The Russian Fund of Federal Property. However, the lobby opportunities of the Zubkov-Serdyukov tandem are so great that the head of RFFI Yuri Petrov will not likely manage to “bid” in the auctions scheduled for April, although his service or he himself should expect compensation.
Apart from executive players, parliament workers were on the toes last week too. In particular, The United Russia administration intends to make measures to sustain its status of the main human resource and stronghold of President Vladimir Putin. Such claims seem to have good reasons; which is supported by the story of the new Ryazan governor: after Vladimir Putin named Oleg Kovalyov to this office, many mass media outlets emphasized that he had gotten the office thanks to his UR membership. The party will further cement its “power’s party” status at the party congress scheduled for mid April. At it, the UR will once again swear allegiance to Vladimir Putin and as a party of parliament majority, on which the confirmation of prime minister candidate in the State Duma depends, will propose the PM office to Putin.
Major events March 10 - March 16, 2008
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev meet with State Duma heads | Vladimir Putin |
| The incumbent president will continue emphasizing his key role in the duumvirate |
Vladimir Putin instructs Igor Shuvalov to design the new executive power structure | Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev |
| This instruction is just a cover, key decisions will be made by Vladimir Putin himself |
Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev meet with Yabloko Leader Yavlinsky | Grigory Yavlinsky | Maksim Reznik, Ilya Yashin | Grigory Yavlinsky will not take part in the uniting congress of opposition parties scheduled for early April |
RFFI Head Yuri Petrov proposes to detach his service from EDTM and submit directly to the Cabinet of Ministers | Yuri Petrov |
| If this initiative is confirmed, RFFI may get back to selling state property |
Entrepreneur Viktor But is arrested in Thailand |
| Sergei Chemezov (?) | It is possible that the American side will try to knock information out of But against senior Russian officials |
Mass media report that the project of Technology Corporation’s authorized capital stock proposed by Sergei Chemezov has been confirmed by the government | Sergei Chemezov, Viktor Zubkov, Anatoly Serdyukov | Sergei Ivanov | In case the president signs the respective decree, the corporation’s capital stock will be formed before fall |
UR General Council’s presidium resolves to organize congress on April 14-15 | UR |
| This congress’s goal is to boost the party’s image and confirm its reputation of a main pillar of the regime even after Vladimir Putin steps down |
Arrest of Drug Traffic Service employee Alexander Bulbov extended to June 2008 | Kremlin’s siloviki | Viktor Cherkesov | It is possible that expectations of the Kremlin’s siloviki’s weakening will not come true |
Mass media report that Duma Deputy Otari Arshba may have been appointed head of the Duma’s regulations committee | Vladimir Pekhtin, Boris Gryzlov |
| Arshba’s appointment will mean that Gryzlov’s status in the State Duma continues increasing |
Duma committee authorizes amendments giving the right to withdraw banking licenses to Rosfinmonitoring | Oleg Markov | Sergei Ignatyev, Aleksey Kudrin | The amendments will likely be passed |
Deputy Minister of Economic Development Vladimir Starodubov files resignation | Tatyana Golikova |
| Starodubov’s exodus will lead to cementation of Golikova’s status in the ministry and it is possible that it will be split in May |
Peterburg Channel 5 administration is replaced | Rossiya Bank controllers group |
| Rossiya Bank controllers will increase energies in the mass media realm |
Valume: 16 pages
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National Energy Security Fund © 2007