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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (19-20) 707-708
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (19-20) 707-708
April 28 - May 11, 2008
Main political trends of two weeks
Despite its routine character and expectedness of the events occurred, the previous week gave a substantial ground for speculations for all interested observers. Public events in the period from 7 to 9 May once again showed that Vladimir Putin was not going to give up his leading role in the Russian politics and he wanted to retain at least ‘equal’ influence on it with Dmitry Medvedev. Besides numerous signals the ex-head of state sent to the elite during his last days in office, he continued building the system of checks and balances especially in terms of building the government-governors executive power vertical. On the whole, Dmitry Medvedev has demonstrated his loyalty to the predecessor and his policies so far, however some of his remarks provide for the supposition that he will not be satisfied with the role of ‘technical’ president.
In addition to organizational and staff measures to prevent loss of his dominating influence on politics, Vladimir Putin and his team prepared a number of peculiar ‘loyalty tests’ in the form of bills to the successor. Should they be passed by parliament, they will have to be signed by the new president. Since the bills are aimed at maintaining ‘hard line’ policies, their approval by Dmitry Medvedev will be considered as his refusal to follow liberal principles he has declared, while vetoing these bills will be interpreted as disloyalty of the successor to his predecessor. The ‘tests’ have two ‘levels of complexity’ the most complicated being represented by bills initiated by Vladimir Putin personally.
Amid expectations of appointments in the new government and president’s executive office, struggle for assets between elite groups intensified, which led to the breakup of some alliances and stirred formation of new configuration of inter-elite relations. In particular, Gazmetall head Alisher Usmanov, who supported Dmitry Medvedev, and Rostekhnologii head Sergey Chemezov, who is considered a close ally of the Kremlin siloviki (security related bloc), through information leakage in mass media sources declared about a hypothetical possibility to unite in struggle for the Udokan field against Russian Railways head Vladimir Yakunin, a close ally of the Kovalchuk brothers who support the new president.
An unexpected claim of the Prosecutor General’s Office to the Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency is another example of inter-elite transformation. It is likely to be the consequence of Prosecutor General Yury Chaika’s reorientation from Dmitry Medvedev towards Vladimir Putin, in particular, towards part of the latter’s close allies represented by the Kremlin siloviki. This elite group is concerned about Gazprom’s intention to get a number of Sakhalin-3 fields without licenses; so it is possible that through the Prosecutor General’s Office it warned the head of the Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency against ‘obediently’ following the interests of the gas monopolist.
Major events April 28 - May 11, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration | Dmitry Medvedev | In the next several months the successor will not make sharp moves to expand the sphere of his influence | |
| Vladimir Putin’s appointment as prime minister | Vladimir Putin | Key appointments in the new government should be expected this week | |
| Vladimir Putin signs a decree on assessing the work of governors by the government | Control over governors will become one of the main elements in constructing the executive power vertical of Vladimir Putin’s government | ||
Norilsk Nickel says the company will independently participate in the tender for the Udokan deposit license | Sergey Chemezov | It is possible that the alliance of Gazmetall and Rostekhnologii will turn from tactical into strategic | |
Moscow Arbitration Court rules to oblige Kommersant newspaper and Finansgroup head Oleg Shvartsman to refute information discrediting Rosoboronexport in the businessman’s interview to the newspaper | Sergey Chemezov | This decision will be protested by the defeated side | |
Prosecutor General’s Office says that the check of the Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency has revealed serious violations in issuing licenses by the agency | Security-related bloc in the presidential administration | Anatoly Ledovskikh | Attacks on the agency by the Prosecutor General’s Office may continue |
| Appointment of Vladimir Filippov as chief of the quarteringservice of the Defense Ministry | Anatoly Serdyukov | Tactics of concessions to the army top brass will not continue after Serdyukov is reappointed | |
Some mass media sources report that Sergey Markelov, the acting head of the Main Investigation Department of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office, will become the department’s head | Security-related bloc in the presidential administration | If this information is confirmed, rumors of Alexander Bastrykin’s desire to distance himself from the Kremlin security related bloc will stop circulating | |
Creation of the long term financial planning department in the Finance Ministry | Alexey Kudrin | Elvira Nabiullina | The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade may lose some serious functions in the new government |
Leonid Nevzlin’s interview to Kommersant Vlast magazine | Attempts to equate Vladimir Putin’s team to Yeltsin’s ‘family clan’ in the media field will continue |
Volume: 15 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007