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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (22) 710
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (22) 710
May 19-25, 2008
Main political trends of the week
Tendencies formed as a result of government reshuffle in mid May continued strengthening last week. Dmitry Medvedev started his second week in office from putting his pre-election promises into practice. In particular, he held meetings devoted to fighting corruption and ensuring independence of the judicial branch; as a result two working groups were formed. Some observers mistakenly interpreted these events as the launch of campaign on escaping Vladimir Putin’s guardianship. However, there are some restrictions, mainly of policy and staff character that make success of such attempts in the near future rather doubtful. First of all, there are few people in the new president’s personal ‘staff pool’ and there is lack of real control over security related agencies.
Last week appointments in the highest layers of power testified to the continuation of policies and retaining positions of leading elite groups formed over the past eight years. At the same time it became obvious that only members of the president’s personal ‘staff pool’ may count on promotion, while members of other elite groups relying on the successor preserved the status quo at best. Another tendency was formed, according to which, any attempt of the head of state to play independently will cause a counteraction by groups relaying on Vladimir Putin.
Despite this system of checks and balances, the conflict environment in Russian elites has not calmed down. At the same time the format of this confrontation enables Vladimir Putin to control it in general, which confirms his status of supreme arbiter in disputes between centers of influence. The situation in the government regarding distribution of authority between ministries may serve as a vivid example of this. In particular, a dispute between the economic development ministry and the industry and trade ministry should be resolved at a meeting of the government presidium chaired by the prime minister.
Major events May 19 - May 25, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
Dmitry Medvedev presides over a meeting devoted to fighting corruption | Dmitry Medvedev | Fight against corruption will be imitated at least at its initial stage | |
Dmitry Medvedev presides over a meeting devoted to improving the judicial system | Dmitry Medvedev | Radical ‘siloviki’ | President will continue focusing his efforts on this direction |
State Duma creates a commission for legislative provision of fight against corruption | United Russia | State Duma will be trying to take active part in all events on this issue | |
| Vladimir Putin meets Russian Academy of Sciences president Yury Osipov | Vladimir Putin, Yury Osipov | Elites will still consider Putin as supreme arbiter and guarantor of interests | |
Functions of the prime minister’s secretariatare transferred to the government staff | Sergey Sobyanin | This move is to minimize risks of conflicts between two bodies | |
| Arkady Dvorkovich appointed president’s sherpa in G8 | Arkady Dvorkovich | Dvorkovich’s staff weight will growth to some extent | |
Supreme Arbitration Court head Anton Ivanov files request to the Highest Board of Judges to suspend from duties Lyudmila Maikova, Chairperson of the Federal Arbitration Court of the Moscow District | Dmitry Medvedev, Anton Ivanov | Radical ‘siloviki’ | There are few chances to satisfy the request |
State Duma rejects deputy Robert Shlegel’s amendment to the law on mass media | Dmitry Medvedev | Speculations about plans to totally amend legislation on mass media this autumn may not be confirmed | |
Defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov signs order on re-establishing the service of general inspectors | Anatoly Serdyukov | Yury Baluyevsky | This service is unlikely to become a ground for negotiations between generals and the ministry’s civil leadership |
Vladimir Putin commissions regional development minister Dmitry Kozak to monitor revision and approval of new construction standards and technical regulations | Dmitry Kozak | Konstantin Pulikovsky | Pulikovsky’s intention to play a special role in building Sochi Olympics facilities will remain unfulfilled |
Media reports that Sogaz completes deal on buying Izvestia newspaper | Bank Rossiya Group | This elite group will keep expanding on the mass media market |
Volume: 15 pages
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
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