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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (23) 711

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (23) 711

May 26 - June 1, 2008

Main political trends of the week

The trend of increasing the Cabinet’s "weight" in the power system continued last week. In particular, presidential administration head Sergey Naryshkin publicly voiced an idea of the necessity to actually concentrate the legislative initiative right in the government. Moreover, Vladimir Putin’s first trip abroad as prime minister and a possible appointment of Yury Ushakov, former Russian Ambassador to the USA, as deputy chief of the government staff demonstrate the ex-president’s intention to acquire part of foreign policy functions. At the same time Vladimir Putin still counts on retaining the balance of interests between major groups of influence in the government.

While the government’s role is almost clear and does not raise questions, the situation with the Security Council has not cleared out yet. The council has been based on decrees rather than laws over the major period of its existence, so its status and influence have depended and still depend on its secretary’s personality and its place in the political layout. Headed by Vladimir Putin and Sergey Ivanov the council was one of the centers of working out strategic decisions, while under former foreign minister Igor Ivanov it turned into a mere sinecure. It is quite possible that in the new power system the council will become a formal ground for developing common policies on security related agencies by Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. At the same time the president is not going to play a ‘technical’ role in the Security Council, which is testified to by its last meeting held without Vladimir Putin.

Some uncertainty observed currently in relations inside their ‘tandem’ allows players to maneuver and feel relatively safe even in cases when they violate informal instructions. However, these players are not part of the bureaucratic establishment. A vivid example is another failure of Kurchatov Institute director Mikhail Kovalchuk at the elections to the Russian Academy of Sciences. He was expected to be approved at the general assembly, however this did not happen. Moreover, some lobbyists inside the government managed to revise the already made decisions. In particular, at the end of last week the Federal Fisheries Agency was again made subordinate directly to the PM, not the agriculture minister.

Major events May 26 - June 1, 2008

Event Winning side Defeated side Development outlooks
Vladimir Putin’s interview to Le Monde Dmitry Medvedev   Vladimir Putin will continue making statements, according to which the president has the last word on many issues
Security Council’s meeting chaired by Dmitry Medvedev Dmitry Medvedev   President will not have only a ‘technical’ role in the council’s activities
Security Council’s composition is updated Viktor Ivanov Sergey Ivanov It is quite possible that the council will turn into a ground of joint control over security related agencies by the president and PM
Vladimir Putin approves deputy PMs as chairs of government commissions Igor Shuvalov Alexey Kudrin

In the near future no substantial staff conflicts between deputy PMs should be expected

Yury Petrov appointed head of the Federal Agency for Managing State Property

Dmitry Medvedev, Yury Petrov

Radical siloviki, Valery Nazarov

After merging with other agencies this Agency will turn into an independent ministry or at least will be subordinate directly to the Cabinet

Alexey Savinov is appointed Federal Forestry Agency head

Viktor Zubkov  

Vladimir Putin will continue maintaining balance between representatives of different elite groups in the government

Dmitry Medvedev signs decree on forming part of the authorized capital of Rostekhnologii

Sergey Chemezov  

Chemezov’s demands will not be fully satisfied

State Duma passes bill limiting Central Bank’s authority to revoke bank licenses in first reading

Federal Financial Monitoring Service Central Bank

State Duma’s offensive on Central Bank’s positions will continue

Election of president and academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Yury Osipov Mikhail Kovalchuk

Conservative academicians may request dismissal of Mikhail Kovalchuk as acting deputy president of the RAS

Federal Fisheries Agency becomes subordinate to the Cabinet instead of the agriculture ministry

Andrey Krainiy Alexey Gordeyev

The agency will retain its status over the next 12 months

Some officials of the Federal Service for the Inspection of Natural Resources Use complain of its chief Vladimir Kirillov

Oleg Mitvol Vladimir Kirillov

Both persons involved will be reprimanded informally

Volume: 15 pages


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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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