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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (24) 712
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (24) 712
June 2 - June 8, 2008
Main political trends of the week
There were several indicative events last week that showed that the potential of conflict inside the "duumvirate" is decreasing despite expectations of second-tier elites. Although Dmitry Medvedev’s statements were to some extent promising for some groups (especially regarding granting pardon to Mikhail Khodorkovsky), however on the whole they were in line with Vladimir Putin’s previous statements. Moreover, the president’s activity on the international direction contributed to the formation of his image of “liberal pragmatist” who permits some liberalization inside the country but intends to firmly defend its interests on the international arena.
Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to dismiss general staff chief Yury Baluyevsky also testified to his adherence to Vladimir Putin’s policies. Earlier Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev guaranteed support to defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov in his reforms, so the rotation in the ministry’s brain trust leadership was just the matter of time. The way the dismissal was made is the example of one of the main postulates of Putin’s staff policy – gradually descending social mobility. In particular, as compensation Yury Baluyevsky was appointed deputy secretary of the national Security Council, whose importance may grow compared to when Igor Ivanov was its secretary.
Another sign that leading elite groups formed during Vladimir Putin’s presidency will at least retain their positions is that the presidential administration has supported Sergey Chemezov’s plan to form Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital. Although the end of this large-scale conflict is still faraway, it is getting clear that main trends of Putin’s epoch will continue, maybe in a slightly changed way.
Major events June 2 - June 8, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
Dmitry Medvedev tells about possible pardon of Mikhail Khodorkovsky | Dmitry Medvedev | Khodorkovsky may be granted pardon only if he pleads guilty | |
Dmitry Medvedev delivers speech within the framework of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum | Dmitry Medvedev | President’s proposal regarding the fifth “i” will be taken into consideration when developing 2020 Strategy | |
General Staff Chief Yury Baluyevsky dismissed, replaced with Nikolay Makarov | Anatoly Serdyukov | Yury Baluyevsky | All reforms planned by Serdyukov to be speeded up |
Vladimir Putin meets with United Russia leadership | Vladimir Putin, United Russia | United Russia will continue showing its readiness for modernization | |
Regional network of public reception offices of Vladimir Putin to be created on the basis of United Russia | Vladimir Putin, United Russia | This network will become alternative channel of direct communication of the population with PM | |
Dmitry Medvedev decides to increase the staff list of prosecutors’ offices by 2,000 people | Yury Chaika | Growth in the number of officers will not result in redistributing authority in favor of the Prosecutor General’s Office | |
Dmitry Medvedev meets with Federation Council Chairperson Sergey Mironov | Sergey Mironov | Dmitry Medvedev may use Federation Council and Just Russia for introducing his initiatives | |
Vladimir Putin meets with Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov | Vladimir Putin | Representatives of the elites continue to maintain balance of visits to president and PM in favor of Vladimir Putin | |
Igor Sechin participates in Rosneft shareholders’ meeting | Igor Sechin | Igor Sechin will continue successful activities on the public field | |
Presidential administration chief Sergey Naryshkin says the plan of forming Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital proposed by Sergey Chemezov has been approved by his office | Sergey Chemezov | Sergey Ivanov, Bank Rossiya Group | This statement does not mean the conflict around disputable assets is coming to its end |
Boris Boyarskov appointed head of Federal Service for Communications Supervision | Boris Boyarskov, Bank Rossiya Group | The official’s range of authority and level of independence will be considerably cut compared to his previous position |
Volume: 15 pages
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The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007