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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (25) 713
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (25) 713
June 9 - June 15, 2008
Main political trends of the week
There were no considerable changes in dominating trends last week. After slightly over a month since Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration it is becoming more obvious that distribution of authority inside the duumvirate also covers branches of power. While Vladimir Putin retains absolute domination in the executive and legislative spheres, the successor enjoys if not total than quite considerable influence in the court system. At the same time, there has been growth in the activity of representatives of the juridical corporation who have been defending their rights more actively in conflicts with opponents. This is likely to lead to growth in influence of the judicial branch; however the latter will not oppose the other two branches.
Last week reshuffle in the law enforcement agencies showed that the system of checks and balances typical of Putin’s style of governance also applies to them. In particular, although Investigation Committee head Alexander Bastrykin’s new deputies are loyal to him in general, they are not from the FSB, which means the latter has started losing control over the IC. At the same time radical siloviki evened the score in another area. Federal Drug Control Service’s new head Viktor Ivanov started mopping up his office from Viktor Cherkesov’s men and in the near future Ivanov’s protégés are expected to occupy key positions in the service.
Besides, siloviki and law enforcement agencies continue competing for the right to spearhead the anti-corruption struggle. This confrontation is mainly of a virtual character because of two reasons at least. Firstly, direct conflicts in the security-related and law enforcement bloc cause strong discontent of Vladimir Putin and result in corresponding consequences. Secondly, struggle against corruption has been and will be mostly of an imitative and targeted character, because if there is a total assault at corrupted officials even the minimal functioning of the state apparatus will be doubtful.
Unceasing struggle for assets results in quite interesting consequences. In particular, it modifies old alliances and creates new ones whose participants are members of different elite groups. Thus, there is mutual intertwining of interests that provides additional stability to the system on the whole, as separate players are not interested in ‘war till complete destruction’.
Major events June 9 - June 15, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
Dmitry Medvedev appoints three deputies of Investigation Committee head | Alexander Bastrykin | Radical security-related bloc (radical siloviki) | Positions of FSB in the entity will be weakening, but this will not lead to appointment of Dmitry Medvedev’s personal staff pool members to posts in the committee |
Dismissal of Viktor Rykov, internal security department head of the Federal Drug Control Committee | Viktor Ivanov | Viktor Cherkesov, Alexander Bulbov | ‘Cleansing’ of the committee from Viktor Cherkesov’s protégés will continue |
| Prosecutor General Yury Chaika issues order forbidding investigation of criminal case against members of the tender commission who elected housewife Irina Buksman a notary public in 2005 | Yury Chaika | Alexander Bastrykin | This may trigger a scandal that may seriously undermine Yury Chaika’s position |
Supreme Court Chairperson Alexander Lebedev says his entity is going to introduce a bill to simplify procedure of prosecuting persons of special status for prosecutors | Yury Chaika | If this bill is passed, Yury Chaika’s position will strengthen considerably | |
Dmitry Medvedev signs bill on public control in prisons into law | Dmitry Medvedev, Federal Prison Service | Vladimir Lukin | There is high possibility that Dmitry Medvedev will sign bill on advocacy into law if it is passed by parliament |
Publication of quotes from finance minister Alexey Kudrin’s letter about certain aspects of formation of Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital | Alexey Kudrin | Sergey Chemezov | A decree on forming Rostekhnologii’s authorized capital signed by Dmitry Medvedev will be a compromise |
Publication of provisions on the ministry of industry and trade and economic development ministry | Elvira Nabiullina | Viktor Khristenko | Debates over what should be considered customs and tariff regulation will sharpen in the near future |
| Dmitry Medvedev meets with Vladimir Lukin | Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Lukin | President will keep making high profile statements on the necessity to observe human and citizen rights and freedoms | |
Dmitry Medvedev commissions natural resources minister Yury Trutnev to revise industrial safety legislation | Yury Trutnev | Konstantin Pulikovsky | It is possible that authority of Federal Service for Ecological, Technological and Atomic Inspection will be substantially cut |
Andrey Isayev, deputy secretary of the United Russia General Council, says that inside party debates are better than those between parties | United Russia | Debates in the party’s regional branches will promote the already adopted decisions |
Volume: 15 pages
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The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007