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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (26) 714
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (26) 714
June 16 - June 22, 2008
Main political trends of the week
Distribution of authority inside the duumvirate is getting more transparent. Last week Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev marked their priorities in the sphere of business regulation more clearly. As expected the president is going to look after small and medium-sized businesses while the prime minister will focus on large businesses. There was also stabilization of ratings of both politicians: Vladimir Putin is confidently ahead of the successor by 20% to 25%. At the same time there were attempts to collide the duumvirate members, first of all by starting rumors in mass media. There were also attempts to put pressure on the duumvirate from outside by publishing discrediting materials.
Despite a relatively non-conflict character of relations on the top decision-making level, the struggle for redistribution of spheres of influence on lower levels of power is not decreasing. In particular, relations inside the government still have a high conflict potential. This is aggravated by rumors about soon revision of its structure (approximately this autumn), which provides hope for many players to increase their influence. At the same time representatives of some centers of influence, e.g. the Zubkov-Serdyukov group, keep on administrative expansion within the current system. Moreover, there are preliminary signs of rehabilitation of some exiled officials, e.g. Viktor Cherkesov, former head of the Federal Drug Control Service and current head of the Federal Agency for Procurement of Military and Special Equipment.
Quite a high level of potential conflicts is in the sphere of assets distribution, i.e. formation of state corporations and companies. Sergey Chemezov managed to turn things into his favor again supported by first deputy PM Igor Shuvalov. A decree signed by Vladimir Putin to turn Rosoboronexport into a JSC with its subsequent transfer to Rostekhnologii is an expected and indicative move in the process of strengthening positions of the state corporation and its head. Another indicative move was the signing of the strategy of the railroad transport development until 2030 by Vladimir Putin. This means that Russian Railways head Vladimir Yakunin still enjoys the prime minister’s favor, despite a set of information attacks aimed at him over the past time.
The struggle around the United Shipbuilding Corporation is expected to sharpen. Appointment of Vsevolod Kurkov, former deputy head of the legal department of the federal tax service, as advisor to the USC president means Igor Sechin’s intention to obtain full control over this corporation and speed up the process of assigning assets to it. When achieving this goal he may face opposition by a number of influential figures, which will sharpen the situation on the inside elite field.
Major events June 16 - June 22, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
Vladimir Putin signs strategy of railroad transport development until 2030 | Vladimir Yakunin | Yakunin’s positions will remain quite firm in the next year | |
Vladimir Putin signs decree on turning Rosoboronexport into a joint stock company with subsequent transfer of shares to Rostekhnologii | Sergey Chemezov | List of enterprises Chemezov is claiming will be cut | |
Appointment of Vsevolod Kurkov as advisor to United Shipbuilding Corporation president | Igor Sechin, Vladimir Ustinov | Viktor Zubkov | There will be tough struggle for control over USC |
Oleg Mitvol is excluded from staff of Federal Service for the Inspection of Natural Resources Use | Vladimir Kirillov, Viktor Zubkov | Oleg Mitvol | Mitvol may be dismissed within the next six months |
Chief of General Staff Nikolay Makarov declares that all functions of customer of defense products will be given to Federal Agency for Procurement of Military and Special Equipment by the yearend | Viktor Cherkesov | Cherkesov may count on partial restoration of his administrative positions | |
Andrey Chobotov, chief of the defense minister’s staff, resigns | Anatoly Serdyukov | Sergey Ivanov | Resignation was long expected and will not change inter-elite layout |
Anastasia Rakova is appointed secretary of state, deputy minister of regional development | Sergey Sobyanin | Dmitry Kozak (?) | It is quite possible that Rakova will strengthen her positions considerably in autumn |
Composition of the Council for Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship of the Russian Government is changed | Vladimir Putin | PM will focus on dialogue with large businesses | |
Dmitry Medvedev signs decree on composition of the military and technical cooperation commission | Alexander Konovalov | President will continue promoting members of his personal personnel pool | |
Amendments to the Federation Council regulations are adopted that forbid activities in the interests of political parties | Sergey Mironov | United Russia | This measure will help the FC speaker to block PR activities of UR members in the upper house of parliament |
Igor Yurgens, vice president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, gives an interview with Reuters | Attempts to destabilize the duumvirate will continue | ||
Dmitry Medvedev meets with Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov | Gennady Zyuganov | This meeting will not seriously influence activity of the communist party | |
Yabloko party congress; Grigory Yavlinsky leaves his post | Sergey Mitrokhin | Grigory Yavlinsky is likely to remain the party’s informal leader in the near term perspective |
Volume: 16 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007