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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (32-34) 720-722
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (32-34) 720-722
July 29 - August 17, 2008
Main tendencies of political week
The past three weeks cannot be called summer lull despite the height of the vocation season. The conflict in Transcaucasia became another durability test for the duumvirate and it has been passed successfully. At the beginning of August there was a prevailing opinion in the expert community that the created diarchic model of governance was stable only in case of inertial developments but in a crisis situation it would fail. The August events refuted such assumptions: a decision to respond toughly to Tbilisi’s actions was made quite quickly considering external limitations (the beginning of the Olympics and impossibility to discuss the problem at a personal meeting); the moves of both politicians were quite well-coordinated. At the same time attempts to consider political processes in Russia in the light of inevitable conflict between the teams of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have not stopped.
Amid the conflict escalation the topic of the first 100 days in office of the new Russian president became secondary. In ‘peacetime’ it could have attracted much greater interest. The first results of Dmitry Medvedev’s governance provide for a conclusion that the new head of state acts (very likely he does it willfully) within the framework of the system built by Vladimir Putin and that he observes its rules, which does not rule out its evolutionary modernization in the future. At the same time the head of state does not give up attempts to broaden the base of his support at the expense of free territories, i.e. institutions and entities that are not in the sphere of Vladimir Putin’s interests. These are small and medium-sized businesses and the judicial system.
The summer lull did not lead to decline in administrative conflicts. In particular, there was reshuffle in the defense ministry where people loyal to Anatoly Serdyukov strengthened their positions. Besides, the role distribution in the ministry was for the first time tested publicly: during the conflict the main speaker on purely military issues was the General Staff’s representative, not the defense minister. As far as agriculture minister Alexey Gordeyev is concerned, he kept on suffering local administrative defeats losing some administrative resources. Nevertheless, having an influential ally, first deputy PM Viktor Zubkov, the minister may try to win back what he has lost.
Major events July 29 - August 28, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin’s statement regarding Mechel | Vladimir Putin | Ex-president will continue dominating on Russia’s political field in the medium-term perspective | |
| Vladimir Strzhalkovsky elected head of Norilsk Nickel | This appointment will strengthen Vladimir Potanin’s positions | ||
| Functions of customs regulation of the agricultural sector are assigned back to the economic development ministry | Ministry of Economic Development | Ministry of Agriculture | It is possible that the economic development ministry will not be disbanded in autumn |
| Decision to revise the bill on trade | Ministry of Industry and Trade | Ministry of Agriculture | Agriculture ministry may win back part of loss when the bill is debated in the government |
| Viktor Zubkov is elected head of Rosselkhozbank’s supervisory board | Viktor Zubkov | Zubkov’s status of main lobbyist of the agro-industrial sector will rise | |
| Dmitry Medvedev meets with representatives of pro-Kremlin youth movements | Projects will not be closed; they will be reformatted | ||
| Dmitry Bezdelov is appointed head of the Federal Agency for State Border Maintenance | Andrey Belyaninov | Process of turning this entity into a really functioning body will be speeded up | |
| Kirill Kabanov, chairperson of the National Anti-Corruption Committee, says Vladimir Putin’s team hinders Dmitry Medvedev to fight corruption | After the events in Georgia such attempts to drive a wedge between the two politicians will come to naught | ||
| Moscow City Court rules in favor of deputy prosecutor general Alexander Buksman | Alexander Buksman, Yury Chaika | Alexander Bastrykin | Conflict between the prosecutor general’s office and investigation committee will be frozen for a while |
| Mass media sources post information about reforms in the air forces and anti-aircraft defense forces | Anatoly Serdyukov | After the Georgian conflict supporters of these reforms will get additional arguments | |
| Publication of information about soon appointment of Valery Galchenko deputy head of United Russia’s executive committee for regional policies | Vyacheslav Volodin | If this appointment happens, the status of this post will rise | |
| Anatoly Yarochkin is appointed head of the Federal Tourism Agency | Vladimir Strzhalkovsky | Strzhalkovsky will retain informal control over the agency |
Volume: 15 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007