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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (38) 726

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (38) 726

September 8-14, 2008

Main tendencies of political week

Both members of the power tandem met with representatives of the Valdai discussion club last week, which once again demonstrated coordinated activities by Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. It should be pointed out that the PM was the first to meet with political scientists, although officially it was attributed to technical reasons. Although both politicians showed identical approaches to fundamental issues, attempts to consider their relations in the light of a possible conflict did not cease. Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to replace Vladimir Putin as head of the council for the Sochi Olympics contributed to such speculations last week. There was also continuation of attempts to mildly discredit Vladimir Putin in the mass media.

There were many HR changes last week, especially in the law enforcement agencies. In particular, in compliance with the presidential decree, the department for fighting organized crime and terrorism headed by Sergey Meshcheryakov is to be disbanded, which can be considered victory of his rival, deputy interior minister Yevgeny Shkolov. Rumors about soon merger of the prosecutor general’s office and the justice ministry with Yury Chaika’s consequent dismissal should be considered in the same context: less than a year ago the latter supported ministerial ambitions of Sergey Meshcheryakov. At the same time there were attempts to maintain balance in the ministry: Alexander Smirny was appointed deputy minister; he can be considered ally of another contender for the ministerial post, Mikhail Sukhodolsky.

Administrative struggle affected civil bodies too. Confrontation between the finance and economic development ministries regarding the VAT rate cut sharpened again. The strengthening of Alexey Kudrin’s positions does not mean capitulation by Elvira Nabiullina: a decree on distributing authority between her deputies issued last week testifies to the fact that she feels quite confident. The positions of sports minister Vitaly Mutko seem to have strengthened noticeably: his opponent, Vyacheslav Fetisov was elected senator of the Primorsky Region and there were rumors in the expert community about soon abolition of the Federal Agency for Physical Culture and Sports and transfer of its functions to the ministry.

A long lasting conflict involving the majority of Russia’s most influential businessmen, around the Udokan deposit was finally settled. As a result the Chemezov-Usmanov tandem defeated the alliance of Yakunin and Vekselberg. At the same time the development and results of the struggle for Udokan demonstrated that the phenomenon of the power tandem does not lead to destructive war between different clans but rather has a latent character of confrontation between different wings around the single decision-making center – the power tandem.

Major events September 8 - September 14, 2008

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooksh

Meetings of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev with Valdai discussion club members

Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev

 

Tandem will continue showing coordinated approach

Chemezov-Usmanov alliance wins struggle for Udokan field

Sergey Chemezov, Alisher Usmanov

Vladimir Yakunin, Viktor Vekselberg

 

Rostekhnologii may later sell its stake in JV

Alexander Smirny is appointed deputy interior minister

Mikhail Sukhodolsky

 

Mikhail Sukhodolsky is likely to become more active in struggle for ministerial post

Dmitry Medvedev signs decree on reorganizing the interior ministry’s structure

Yevgeny Shkolov

Sergey Meshcheryakov

Shkolov may head the interior ministry after Rashid Nurgaliyev leaves

Information is posted about soon amalgamation of the prosecutor general’s office and justice ministry

Alexander Konovalov

Yury Chaika

It is possible that merger will not happen but Yury Chaika will lose his post

Alexey Drobyshevsky is appointed acting head of the defense ministry’s information and PR department instead of Ilshat Baichurin

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Serdyukov may keep on mopping up his team, which will save him from reproaches for his desire to appoint his protégés to better posts

Vyacheslav Fetisov is appointed senator representing the Primorsky Region

Vitaly Mutko

Vyacheslav Fetisov

Federal Agency for Physical Culture and Sports may be disbanded and its function will be transferred to the sports ministry

Decree on the federal agency for CIS affairs is signed

 

 

Only after the agency’s head is appointed it will be possible to define who has lost and who has won

Vladimir Miklushevsky and Alexander Khlunov are appointed deputy education ministers

Andrey Fursenko, Dmitry Livanov

 

Miklushevsky will continue Livanov’s course of offensive at the positions of the academic community

UR State Duma deputy Viktor Grishin is elected Rector of Plekhanov Russian Academy of Economics

United Russia

 

The policy of gaining control over the university community and turning it from critic to partner of state authorities will continue

Acting natural resources minister Semyon Levi signs order on dismissing Rosprirodnadzor deputy head Oleg Mitvol

Vladimir Kirillov, Yury Trutnev

Oleg Mitvol, Igor Sechin

It is possible that Mitvol will be reinstated

Replacement of Vladimir Putin with Dmitry Medvedev as head of the council for developing physical culture and sports, top level sports, preparing and holding XXII Winter Olympics and XI Winter Paralympics in Sochi in 2014

 

 

Vladimir Putin will de facto continue heading this body

Regional development minister Dmitry Kozak proposes to change procedure of the Investment Fund’s functioning

 

 

Dmitry Kozak is speeding up administrative expansion entering into conflict with the economic development ministry

Alexey Kudrin and Elvira Nabiullina continue their polemics

 

 

Their struggle will continue with varied success

Decree on distributing responsibilities between deputies of economic development minister is signed

 

 

Chances that the ministry will not be disbanded are increasing

Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s interview with The Moscow Times, in which he supported Dmitry Medvedev’s actions in Southern Caucasus

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

 

The ex-mogul will keep on showing reverences to state authorities counting on his release in October

Former press secretary of Nashi movement, Ivan Mostovich, is appointed head of the PR and information department of the Central Election Commission

 

 

The process of recruiting former pro-Kremlin movement members into state bodies will continue

Volume: 15 pages

 


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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