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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (60) 748

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (60) 748

February 09 - 15, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

Representatives of power agencies were again increasingly active last week. In particular, Investigation Committee head Alexander Bastrykin again put forward accusations against the inner circle of finance minister Alexey Kudrin. This is probably due to the beginning of another offensive at the administrative heavyweight by influential staff and political groups willing to gain control over this strategic post. The heads of General Prosecutor’s Office, interior ministry and FSB were also noticeably active on the media field. Such intensified activities are first of all attributed to the on-going crisis and decline in resources, which resulted in sharpened struggle for remaining resources. Moreover, amid the crisis the role of power agencies as an element of the state system will be growing.

The situation around another power body, the defense ministry, which is traditionally considered separate from others, was very confusing last week. After a close meeting of defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov in the State Duma it became known that the military budget would be reduced by 15%, although it is not clear what budget expenses will be revised. The army’s rearmament is likely to be sacrificed, which is unacceptable considering constant deterioration of its combat potential, especially from the technical point of view. The defense ministry and state authorities seem to realize this fact and they are planning to stake on strategic nuclear forces; yet, the situation here is also not so unambiguous. Firstly, the strategic nuclear forces are also degrading inexorably. Secondly, modern conflicts imply the use of the ground forces (such a situation may emerge on the Russian-Chinese border), but they are expected to be reduced within the framework of reforms.

The dynamics of changes on the non-power part of the political field also provides for some interesting observation. The authorities seem to have selected two parallel strategies of countering the crisis. The first strategy envisages maintenance of an acceptable level of social optimism, judging by a speech of Vladislav Surkov, first deputy head of the presidential administration, at 2020 Forum. The second is about assimilating responsible counter-elites and incorporating them into the current elite, even if it happens just symbolically like in the case of refreshing the composition of the president’s council for human rights.

Major events February 09, 2009 - February 15, 2009

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

IC head Alexander Bastrykin says high-ranking officials in the finance ministry participated in massive embezzlement of state funds

Alexander Bastrykin

Alexey Kudrin

Another attack at positions of the finance minister will be soon used up

Prosecutor General’s Office declares about intensification of activities of the interdepartmental group for countering economic crimes

Yury Chaika

MVD, FSB

This direction of activities will only slightly offset the functions Yury Chaika’s office lost

Garry Minkh is appointed Russian presidential representative in the State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Given the peculiarity of the current political system, Garry Minkh will become a key figure in the State Duma

Dmitry Medvedev approves a new composition of the president’s council for human rights

Dmitry Medvedev

Communist Party

President will keep showing attention to liberals

Dmitry Medvedev declares at a meeting of the State Council about the necessity to humanize the penal system and improve work on giving pardon

Dmitry Medvedev

 

President may draft and submit a corresponding bill in pursuance of his statements

Dmitry Medvedev chairs a meeting of the council for developing informational society

Yury Luzhkov

 

Initiatives on introducing IT into the administrative system are likely to remain on paper to a great extent

Igor Yakovenko is dismissed as Secretary of the Russian Union of Journalists

Dmitry Medvedev

Igor Yakovenko

 

Dialogue between authorities and the systemic part of the liberals will intensify

NAC and FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov says skinheads pose terrorism threat

 

 

Authorities’ pressure on nationalists will be increasing amid growth in ethnophobia, but it is unlikely to prevent ethnic tension

Rashid Nurgaliyev’s interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Rashid Nurgaliyev

 

MVD may later gradually distance itself from countering ethnophobia

Government decree broadening the list of self-defense weapons for officers of the Prosecutor General’s Office

 

 

This document is of technical character

Volume: 14 pages


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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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