NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (63) 751

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (63) 751

March 02 - March 08, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

The trend of polarization of the Russian elite suggesting different models of behavior in the crisis situation finally shaped last week. Some part of the elite, they can be conditionally called liberal reformers, stand for fundamental reconstruction of the political system; others, the conservators, are pushing forward the idea of Russia’s autarchy as an extreme measure with the objective to maximally isolate the country from consequences of the global crisis.

In the context of this confrontation the perception of 2020 Strategy and forums devoted to it has changed. Currently not only the letter of the document is important, which will be revised not once in the light of the crisis, but rather its spirit envisaging gradual modernization of the political system without its fundamental destruction like in the 1990s. Since confrontation of the two groups is likely to finish with a compromise, the struggle for control over the discourse of the modernization project is being brought into the foreground. The winner will claim authorship of the Russian political system in the second decade of the 21^st century.

However, the current system is enough durable so far, which was demonstrated by the regional elections whose results were drawn last week. United Russia managed to preserve dominant positions, although they weakened in a number of regions in favor of parliamentary minorities. This, however, does not pose any threat to the political system on the whole. Thus, if there is no new serious decline in social and economic parameters, United Russia will manage to retain its domination in the crisis period. The municipal election results were alarming for the party of power as it failed in some cases to ensure simple majority or mayor posts. Moreover, conflicts of local clans surfaced and UR failed to settle or at least conceal them.

Major events March 02, 2009 - March 08, 2009

Event	Winning side	Defeated side	Development Outlooks
Dmitry Medvedev’s interview with the Spanish mass media is published			President will keep ignoring the non-systemic opposition
Dmitry Medvedev meets with part of the president’s top hundred			The next meeting with other representatives won’t take place soon
Dmitry Medvedev says it is necessary to make the anti-crisis plan understandable to everybody, not just the government			Dmitry Medvedev will continue criticizing the government provoking a new wave of rumors about split in the tandem
The Supreme Court rules that the Prosecutor General is the highest instance on all HR issues for prosecutors and investigators	Yury Chaika	Alexander Bastrykin	Without changing law there will be no serious redistribution of authority between the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Investigation Committee
Yury Luzhkov speaks in support of Lyudmila Maikova	Oleg Sviridenko	Anton Ivanov	Maikova will have to leave her post anyway
Alexander Misharin is appointed chief of the industry and infrastructure department of the government staff	Igor Levitin, Sergey Sobyanin		Sobyanin’s positions in the government staff will keep strengthening
Viktor Risovanny is appointed deputy chief of the federal fisheries agency			Interests of the Baltic and Far Eastern clans in the agency will be more balanced
Spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky’s interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets			Rumors about the tandem’s soon breakup and possibility of a coup d’état will keep circulating
Chief of armaments of the Russian armed forces, Vladimir Popovkin, announces the rearmament plan for 2009	Anatoly Serdyukov		Plans will be implemented but next year rearmament parameters will drop
The first meeting of Pravoe Delo’s supreme council			Co-chairpersons will keep debating the party’s strategic goals