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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (70) 758
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (70) 758
April 20 - April 26, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
Speculations about public policy events continued last week. This in particular concerned parole for YUKOS ex-officer Svetlana Bakhmina. Commentators divided into several groups in terms of assessing the reason for and President Dmitry Medvedev’s role in this event. It is noteworthy that the majority of those belonging to the liberal camp did not express any special optimism regarding the prospects of transformation of Russia’s political system pointing to causality of the court’s decision on Bakhmina. The president himself gave cause for such pessimism in an interview with NTV channel made shortly before the YUKOS ex-officer’s release; in the interview the president stressed undesirability of replacing concrete steps aimed at fighting the crisis with political slogans.
On this background there was fierce inside-elite struggle for declining resources. Last week it became finally clear that state corporations were under attack as the richest companies in terms of resources. So far, two of them were assaulted – the agency for insuring savings deposits and the fund for utilities reforms – but there are others ‘money bags’ in line. It is noteworthy that state corporations realize such dangers and keenly react to the criticism cutting bonuses to managers and boasting of their managerial skills.
Last week there was a turning point in the process of mopping up the defense ministry of the so-called representatives of generals’ Fronde. Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) chief Valentin Korabelnikov retired, which means the ministry is fully mopped up and the Fronda lost its last potential leader. Now there is a definite course at minimizing social expenses and getting rid of the ministry’s ‘ballast’ that may include many people.
Major events April 20, 2009 - April 26, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev opens his LiveJournal blog | Dmitry Medvedev |
| President will get another channel of direct communication with the population |
| Early release on parole for Svetlana Bakhmina | Dmitry Medvedev |
| Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev will get tough sentence |
| GRU chief Valentin Korabelnikov resigns | Anatoly Serdyukov |
| There are no high-ranking generals in the defense ministry capable of resisting Serdyukov’s reforms |
| Information is posted about suspension of redeployment of the Navy headquarters to St. Petersburg |
|
| The Navy main command may be disbanded on substantially cut |
| Mikhail Motorin, chief of the defense ministry’s financial planning department, says all participants of the Russian-Georgian conflict will get material compensations due | Anatoly Serdyukov |
| This step does not indicate the ministry leadership’s refusal to maximally cut expenses |
| State Duma deputies ask finance minister Alexey Kudrin to consider competency of Alexander Tyurbanov, head of the agency for deposit insurance |
| Alexander Tyurbanov | The agency head will be subjected to new media attacks |
| Prosecutor General’s Office publishes the results of checks of the fund for utilities development and some government entities | Yury Chaika |
| The prosecutor’s office will keep claiming the role of leader in anti-graft struggle |
| Joint board meeting of the Prosecutor General’s Office and the economic development ministry |
|
| The prosecutor’s office will try to strengthen the status of coordinator of entities overseeing state property management |
| Signing of an agreement between Pravoe Delo and the Russian motorist movement |
|
| Motorist movement leaders will prefer to cooperate with former SPS activists in the party |
| Federation Council member Yury Osintsev is appointed deputy minister of regional development | Viktor Basargin, Sergey Sobyanin |
| Recruitment of representatives of the Siberia-Urals group to the ministry will continue |
| Federal drug control service head Viktor Ivanov says it is necessary to introduce life sentence for big drug dealers | Viktor Ivanov |
| The service head will keep making resonant statements; most of them won’t be implemented |
Volume: 14 pages
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The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
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