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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (71-72) 759-760
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (71-72) 759-760
April 27 - May 10, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
The first anniversary of Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration and informational games around the first year results were major events last week. It is symptomatic that most commentators and experts (often having opposite ideological positions) assessed the results quite positively in general, but the reasons for such loyalty differed. In particular, the majority of liberals noticed signals of gradual liberalization of the political system coming from the president. At the same time, adherents of the ‘thaw theory’ often put a brave face on a sorrow business and pass the desirable for reality. ‘Conservators’ expectedly expressed satisfaction with the new president having become a successor in full meaning of this word, not a destroyer, of the system created in the rich 2000s.
Another vector of policies formed at the end of Putin’s presidency also continued last week – intertwining of inside-elite interests, which is quite expedient during the crisis and amid declining resources. In particular, Rostekhnologii signed a memorandum with a number of major banks, according to which the state corporation will de facto manage non-financial assets pledged at the banks. Boris Kovalchuk’s appointment as deputy head of Rosatom will also promote partnership relations between the Bank Rossiya group and Sergey Kiriyenko.
However, this policy does not mean complete refusal of inside-elite struggle – it just ensures that competition between elite groups is carried out latently, non-publicly and in line with certain rules. In late April – early May struggle for the post of chief of the Moscow Main Department of Internal Affairs (GUVD) started following the previous chief’s dismissal after a police major had killed civilians in rampage in a supermarket. Judging by indirect evidence (a wave of publications about police abuses in other Russian regions), this struggle may grow into an administrative confrontation for the post of interior minister. Staff reshuffle again occurred in the defense ministry, one of the most restless ministries lately. However, in this case there are no alternatives – Anatoly Serdyukov still fully controls the mop-up process in the ministry and affiliated entities.
Major events April 27, 2009 - May 10, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev meets with Just Russia leaders | Dmitry Medvedev, Sergey Mironov |
| JR will try to promote JR-Dmitry Medvedev association to enable them to claim status of the second party of power |
| Rostekhnologii signs memorandum of cooperation with Sberbank, VTB and Gazprombank | Sergey Chemezov |
| All assets the banks exchanged for debts will in fact be controlled by Rostekhnologii |
| Boris Kovalchuk is appointed Rosatom deputy head | Kovalchuk brothers |
| Bank Rossiya group will keep maneuvering between leading elite groups |
| Dmitry Medvedev submits a legislative initiative stipulating appointment of the Constitutional Court chair and his deputies by the Federation Council as per nomination by the president | Dmitry Medvedev | Valery Zorkin | After the bill is approved, the president’s team will focus on the Supreme Court |
| Valeria Adamova is appointed chair of the federal arbitration court of the Moscow district | Anton Ivanov |
| Positions of Moscow Arbitration Court head Oleg Sviridenko will substantially weaken |
| Control over SPI company is transferred from the agriculture ministry to FAUGI | Yury Petrov | Elena Skrynnik | Control over the asset is very likely to be later transferred to Rosalcohol |
| ROSTO congress | Anatoly Serdyukov |
| Defense ministry will really control ROSTO and it will become an ‘exile’ for high-ranking retired generals |
| Airborne troops’ commander Valery Yevtukhovich sent into retirement |
|
| Vladimir Shamanov, Nikolay Ignatov and Alexander Bespalov have higher chances to replace him |
| Information is leaked about Mikhail Vanichkin, the interior minister’s assistant, being possible next head of the Moscow GUVD |
| Mikhail Vanichkin | Mikhail Vanichkin’s chances to occupy this post will decrease substantially |
| Igor Agamirzian is appointed head of the Russian Venture Company |
|
| RVC’s new head will maintain the image of technocrat and distance himself from main groups of interests in it |
Volume: 14 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
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