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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (76) 764

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (76) 764

June 1 - 7, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

Despite the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which is quite a resonant event, the main media speculations last week were mostly connected with the ruling tandem and its prospects.

It should be mentioned that a new campaign aimed at splitting the tandem started in early June; now the stake is made on igniting a conflict between the teams of the tandem members. There is an idea in the mass media field that Dmitry Medvedev needs to create his own team to become a “full-fledged president”. This stipulates not only the formation of a group of people sharing the same views but also their promotion to administrative posts that will enable them to control substantial resources. This will inevitably lead to sharpening of inside-elite conflicts and the sides will start appealing to corresponding tandem members forcing them to turn from arbiters into players. Such developments may undermine stability of the political system.

However, judging by the actions of the tandem members, a conflict scenario of developments is unlikely. Last week in contrast to rumors Dmitry Medvedev supported Putin’s finance minister Alexey Kudrin in his polemics with Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. In addition, Russia’s president proposed the State Duma to reappoint Central Bank chief Sergey Ignatyev for another term and nominated him long before the date stipulated by the law. This may have been made to prevent possible speculations about a new CB head. Moreover, last week Dmitry Medvedev at least twice supported the government’s policy of gradual devaluation of the ruble.

Last week a campaign to rehabilitate the Novocherkassk-2009 topic was launched. This was inspired by events in Pikalevo, the Leningrad Region, where the locals blocked a highway after they had been left unemployed. Although the problem was quickly settled personally by Vladimir Putin, liberal experts interpreted the incident as a failure of the government vertical. Meanwhile, state authorities are adjusting the mechanism of soft neutralization of social risks inter alia using trade unions while the non-systemic opposition having got disappointed in the efficiency of direct actions, declared about their intention to take part in the Moscow City Duma election, which may become the first step towards their “systemic transformation”.

Major events June 1, 2009 - June 7, 2009

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev’s speech at St. Petersburg Economic Forum

Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Ignatyev

 

President will keep supporting the government’s social and economic course

Dmitry Medvedev’s interview with Kommersant

Dmitry Medvedev

 

President will continue occasionally using interviews with the press to elaborate on his strategic positions

Dmitry Medvedev criticizes Alexander Lukashenko for hard words about Alexey Kudrin

Alexey Kudrin

 

Rumors about the minister’s soon dismissal will decline

Vladimir Putin criticizes the government’s system of implementing decisions

 

 

PM will initiate new changes in procedures raising the level of personal responsibility of functionaries

Vladimir Putin criticizes activities of the Federal Customs Service

 

Andrey Belyaninov

The functionary’s dismissal is unlikely

Dmitry Medvedev proposed to reappoint Sergey Ignatyev as Central Bank chief

Sergey Ignatyev, Alexey Kudrin

 

Sergey Ignatyev will be reappointed without problems

President’s assistant Arkady Dvorkovich says there is no conflict between the Kremlin and finance ministry

Alexey Kudrin

 

Attempts to discredit the finance minister will continue but they won’t succeed

Igor Sobolevsky is dismissed as Investigation Committee deputy head

 

 

Another protégé of Alexander Bastrykin will be appointed to the vacant post

Teimuraz Bolloyev is appointed head of Olimpstroy state corporation

Dmitry Kozak

Alexander Tkachev

This move has only fixed the status quo and won’t lead to redistribution of spheres of influence in the state corporation

Solidarnost’s Bureau decides to take part in the Moscow City Duma election

 

 

Their candidates are unlikely to pass even registration procedures

Volume: 13 pages

 

 

 


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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