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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (79) 767
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (79) 767
June 22 - 28, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
Although the domestic political agenda last week was just a background of Dmitry Medvedev’s widely covered African tour, many previously outlined informational lines kept developing. In particular, discussion about the expediency of cardinal changes in the Russian political system continued. Several events provided a new impulse to this.
Firstly, public disturbances that followed the June 12 presidential elections in Iran were conceptually interpreted last week by adherents of radical liberalization and were adapted to the Russian reality. There was a theory suggested about the so-called “Asian democracy” that was allegedly practiced by all countries that did not develop in line with western canons. The main representative of such states is China followed by Iran and then Russia. A peculiar feature of this model is a capitalistic economic system combined with an authoritarian political system (or “controllable democracy”). According to this theory, sooner or later the economy and politics become incompatible and the “active minority” (authors of this idea a priori believe they belong to it) enters into conflict with the “aggressively obedient majority”.
The second impulse to the discussion was caused by an attempt on the life of Ingush president Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, which provided for the opportunity to again criticize the power vertical. Previously Ingushetia had been a convenient target for such criticism but with the new president the situation started improving, which deprived liberal radicals of one of their favorite ‘negative’ topics. As a result of the attempt they have received new arguments to criticize the Kremlin’s policy of staking on one leader, which does pay for itself in case of an emergency.
Major events June 22, 2009 - June 28, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| PM Vladimir Putin visits a Perekrestok supermarket | Vladimir Putin |
| PM will keep making effective moves in the “manual control” style |
| Congress of Just Russia | JR |
| JR representatives will toughen criticism of the one-party system and actively highlight “its unfairness” at the upcoming regional elections |
| International Socialist Forum is held in Moscow | JR |
| JR will continue employing this event to broaden its international relations |
| Vladislav Surkov, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, meets with members of the presidential council for development of civil society institutions |
|
| Every stage of work on amending the law in NGOs will be maximally highlighted in the mass media |
| The jury finds Dmitry Dovgy, ex-head of the main investigation department of the Investigation Committee, guilty | Alexander Bastrykin | Dmitry Dovgy
| Chances that Supreme Court will change the verdict are 50/50 |
| The government’s commission for the fuel and energy sector is given additional authority | Igor Sechin |
| Igor Sechin and his team will intensify their expansion onto business |
| The State Duma committee for constitutional legislation introduces amendments to the bill on anti-graft examination broadening authority of Prosecutor General’s Office | Yury Chaika | Alexander Konovalov | If the bill is passed with the amendments, the administrative weight of the Prosecutor General’s Office will substantially increase |
| The government approves a package of amendments to the anti-monopoly legislation | Federal Anti-Monopoly Service |
| The amendments will be submitted and passed by the State Duma in the shortest time possible |
| The State Duma passes a bill on creating Rosavtodor state corporation | Sergey Ivanov, Igor Levitin |
| Struggle between elite groups for the post of Rosavtodor head will soon start |
| Boris Nemtsov says it is necessity for Barack Obama to meet with representatives of the non-systemic opposition in Moscow |
|
| If this meeting does not take place, the non-systemic opposition may lose the last source of their legitimacy |
Volume: 13 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007