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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (34) 775
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (34) 775
August 17 - 23, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
Last week state authorities continued forming the agenda of the upcoming political season demonstrating their intention to become moderators of this process. Last year some groups tried to impose their view on the situation on the head of state and such attempts diminished only after promulgation of Dmitry Medvedev’s first presidential address. This time the president and his team initially made it clear that they intended to control the “process of targeting”; however, it does not mean the head of state will fully monopolize it. It stipulates a dialogue according to the rules established by the Kremlin; its participants include other entities such as political parties and the civil society in general.
Last week state authorities sent a signal to all interested players having outlined an approximate time of promulgation of the address and its rough structure. The stage of filling in the content of the agenda that will be reflected in this document has begun. It is likely to be carried out through the lately tested format of meetings of the president with representatives of political parties and civil society. This will provide for the consideration of opinions of main systemic players and the document’s balanced language that will maximally satisfy all sides.
However, attempts by some figures to impose their own agenda on state authorities did not stop. For example, some trade union leaders made alarmist statements about a soon social explosion in a number of regions. According to them, the stock of patience of workers has run out and they are ready for extreme measures while the police are not planning to suppress such protest actions. This is likely to be an attempt to play on phobias of state authorities and remind them of their rather shaky position in the autumn and winter when the economic decline looked catastrophic and irreversible.
Informational interpretations regarding the anniversary of the 1991 events can also be viewed as attempts to form an alternative vision of the situation. Some experts rushed to declare that the repetition of that situation was allegedly possible nowadays and there were premises for that. In this situation state authorities preferred not to engage in polemics with them and staked on de-politicization of this memorable date. Judging by social surveys, this strategy is successful – the population’s attitude to the August 1991 events is changing; in the consciousness of people they are being supplanted by an abstract holiday – State Flag Day.
Major events August 17, 2009 - August 23, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev meets with the UR leadership to discuss HR issues | United Russia |
| UR will intensify its participation in the autumn election campaign |
| Information is posted about the time and approximate structure of the president’s state of the nation address |
|
| Struggle for the document’s content will intensify but state authorities will control the process of its drafting |
| Dmitry Medvedev meets with authorities of law enforcement agencies |
| Rashid Nurgaliyev | Tough rhetoric may prevail in speeches of the head of state |
| Dmitry Medvedev’s initiative to withdraw consideration of some grave crimes from the competence of the jury | Dmitry Medvedev |
| Despite criticism by some human rights activists, Medvedev’s initiative will be fixed in a law, perhaps in a partially corrected form |
| Dmitry Medvedev’s meeting with National Security Council members devoted to normalization of the situation in N. Caucasus | Dmitry Medvedev |
| Rhetoric of the tandem members will remain tough in the near future |
| Vladimir Putin criticizes top managers of United Aircraft Building Corporation | Vladimir Putin | Sergey Ivanov | In autumn the tandem may decide to reform state corporations |
| Interior minister Rashid Nurgaliyev’s order to eradicate corruption in the ministry within a month |
|
| The order is unrealizable a priori; the minister may be dismissed in the near future |
| Prosecutor General’s Office says it has revealed some violations in maintenance of some means of transport | Yury Chaika | Igor Levitin, transportation inspection service, air transportation, railway and air transportation agencies | Reshuffle may occur on the ministry’s top level |
| Supreme Court rules to allow tax authorities to check whether cash vouchers are given out | Supreme Court | Supreme Arbitration Court | Competition between the two courts will sharpen |
| Some trade union leaders declare about a possibility of a social explosion in regions |
|
| Social situation is unlikely to worsen substantially |
Volume: 14 pages
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The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
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The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
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The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
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