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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (43) 784

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (43) 784

October 19 - 25, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

Two main informational lines that dominated the agenda a week earlier continued last week. One concerns the final stage of preparations for the presidential state of the nation address. This will lead to intensified cooperation of the Russian president and his executive office with different social groups and individuals who submit their remarks and proposals on the draft document. Just a month ago there were thousands of responses, while currently there are dozens of thousands of them. Moreover, the president actively attracts professional communities to the process of work on the document. Last week the head of state met with leaders of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) and discussed Russia’s post-crisis fate and modernization prospects. However, the analysis of results of the meeting questions the thesis that businesses may be automatically listed among allies of the president in his project of modernizing the country.

The notorious parliamentary crisis provoked allegedly by falsifications at the October 11 elections ended with nothing. This conflict only revealed the vulnerability of the Russian opposition. Oppositionists failed to propose a distinct positive alterative to the course pursued by state authorities and staked on negative slogans like those of “the discontented”. Their post-electoral media campaign finished with an image defeat of the majority of its participants. Only communists, who were the last to return to the State Duma under a good pretext, managed to gain some dividends confirming their status of the leading opposition force. A meeting with the Russian president, the oppositionists had demanded so much, did not produce any result.

Certain social groups and strata noticeably reinforced the pressure on state authorities forcing them to make concessions. Some players tried to use supposed phobias of authorities in their own interests. In particular, Channel 5 journalists interpreted a purely business issue of optimization of the personnel in a political manner threatening the country’s top officials with a “new Pikalevo” case. There were noticeable attempts of some mass media sources to stir hysteria about another protest action of motorists in the Primorsky Region, which was an attempt to play on state authorities’ phobias reminding of the last year events.

Crisis tendencies in the non-systemic opposition reached its peak. Judging by indirect evidence, this camp is splitting into those ready to cooperate with state authorities on special conditions and “the irreconcilable”. Marina Litvinovich published a manifesto of the first group on Gazeta.ru and practically immediately was toughly criticized by leaders of the other group. The latter realize that such transformation threatens their personal power and new figures may start dominating in case of closer relations between the non-systemic opposition and state authorities. However, this trend cannot stop, because “the irreconcilable” understand that current state authorities are to stay in power for a long time.

Major events October 19 - 25, 2009

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev’s meeting with RSPP representatives devoted to the presidential Address

Dmitry Medvedev, RSPP

 

Businesses won’t automatically become the president’s allies in implementation of his modernization project

Dmitry Medvedev’s meeting with representatives of parliamentary parties

UR, JR, CPRF, LDPR

 

There will be no cancelation of the October 11 election results and dismissal of CEC head Vladimir Churov

Dmitry Medvedev chairs a meeting devoted to preparations for his Address

   

Work with proposals of citizens will intensify

CEC head Vladimir Churov delivers a report in the State Duma

Vladimir Churov, UR

CPRF, LDPR, JR

The party of power will more often indicate law violations by the opposition

CPRF faction members return to the State Duma

   

Communists will preserve the reputation of the leading opposition force

CPRF member Nikolay Gubenko is appointed deputy speaker of the Moscow City Duma

UR, CPRF

 

This post won’t enable communists to more actively influence decision-making processes

The State Duma passes the bill on disciplinary court

Supreme Arbitration Court

Supreme Court

Redistribution of powers in the judicial system in favor of the SAC will continue

The Bureau of the Federal Board of the United Civil Front (OGF) terminates authority of OGF executive director Marina Litvinovich

 

Non-systemic opposition

The non-systemic opposition will split into two camps depending on readiness to cooperate with state authorities

Volume: 14 pages


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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