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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (47) 788
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (47) 788
November 16 - 22, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
A congress of United Russia with speeches delivered by the president and the premier became a central event last week. On one side, the PM’s report was political; on the other side it was quite concrete and could be viewed as detailed elaboration of the president’s state of the nation address. On the eve of the congress there was an active media campaign aimed at demonstrating that UR did not want to embed itself in the modernization agenda and wanted to freeze presidential initiatives staking on the ideology of conservatism. However, the PM’s report showed it was not so and conservatism was rather a way of modernization, not a method to preserve the status quo.
Having suffered the first wave of disappointment with the address, liberals launched a massive campaign of interpreting this document to their advantage. An article by American political expert Nikolay Zlobin can be viewed as the campaign’s quintessence; in fact quite many texts with similar theses were posted, which can be considered a tendency. The main idea is that even such an indecisive president is better than a conservative one, and it is necessary to try to impose the agenda on state authorities through him, i.e. in fact it is suggested to manipulate the head of state.
The intensity of the game aimed at splitting the tandem, which reached its peak on the eve of the address’s promulgation, somewhat decreased but the campaign did not curtail. It was slowly moving with some local hits of activity last week. The most noticeable wave was about the reasons of presidential adviser Mikhail Lesin’s resignation. A gossip was immediately disseminated, according to which the resignation was the result of the fact that Video International associated with Lesin was allegedly participating in Vladimir Putin’s “advertising” campaign aimed at bringing the latter to the presidential post in 2012.
There have been several forms of struggle for principles of modernization lately: the media has been considering foreign samples acceptable for Russia. Liberals are trying to impose the Irish scenario instead of the discredited American one; their opponents, who promoted the Chinese case, are now turning their attention to the Singaporean model. In the context of this polemics the president’s statement about the intention to take into consideration the Singaporean variant when implementing modernization is very indicative.
Major events November 16 - 22, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev’s speech at United Russia’s congress | UR’s federal leadership | UR’s regional leadership | President will keep demanding the party’s renovation more rigidly |
| Vladimir Putin’s speech at UR’s congress | Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev | There won’t be sense in accusing Dmitry Medvedev of the lack of specifics in his Address | |
| Boris Gryzlov’s speech at UR’s congress | UR’s federal leadership | The party leadership will keep demonstrating consent to the president’s ideas about the necessity of modernizing the party | |
| Rotation in the UR Supreme Council and the Supreme Council Bureau | In the near future there will be no staff purges in the party on the federal level | ||
| Dmitry Medvedev says it is necessary to consider Singapore’s experience in the process of modernizing Russia | Dmitry Medvedev | Liberal community | President has chosen conservative modernization focused on a technological update |
| Boris Gryzlov says it is necessary to block the bill on raising the transport tax that was passed by the State Duma several days before | Sergey Mironov, Just Russia | Boris Gryzlov, United Russia | The party of power will have to make several noticeable PR moves to offset the damage to its image |
| Presidential advisor Mikhail Lesin resigns | Any HR decision by Dmitry Medvedev will be viewed in the light of anti-Putin policies | ||
| Representatives of the informal Antifa movement attack an office of the pro-Kremlin Young Russia movement | Under the pressure of law enforcement agencies Antifa will reduce its activities in the near future |
Volume: 14 pages
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007