Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (32-34) 668-670

July 30 – August 19, 2007

Main political trends of the week

During the first half of August all three segments of the political field in Russia showed intense activity – successors competition, parties, and government staff.

By the middle of the month it was clear that the power chose to rely on the so-called mechanical transition of power, which means that one of the first vice-prime ministers – Sergei Ivanov or Dmitry Medvedev – will be picked as the next president. This should make power transition in 2008 stable and predictable but such scenario may also face certain challenges, including escalation of terrorism and socio-economic issues.

As to parties, during the last three weeks the trends that had surfaced previously intensified. In particular, the gap between The United Russia and The Just Russia became more obvious and it is clear that The United Russia has been chosen as the only «power’s party.» The two parties appeared frequently in the news unlike other political groups, with the exception of SPS. However, the latter showed it had big issues with choosing the first three candidates to slate in the general election ticket.

Competition inside the government was intense as well. Particularly, the changes to the government order that were introduced at the end of July made the first and «regular» vice-PMs nearly equal and gave the president the right to give direct instructions to deputy prime ministers. In the latter case, the goal is to help Vladimir Putin maintain influence in the country. However, despite the seeming decrease of the PM’s status, the new amendments have advantages as well. Thank to the equalization of all vice-premiers’ statuses, Sergei Naryshkin found himself in a privileged position – using the authority of government staff chief he can take part in the preparation of decisions relating to his colleagues’ competence. Mikhail Fradkov also managed to lobby for the appointment of his associate Mikhail Kopeikin as executive secretary for the Competitiveness Council, which should increase the PM’s status in the standoff against the heads of the Finance Ministry and Economic Development and Trade Ministry.

Another tendency revealed during the last three weeks is the increased conflict around preparations for Sochi Winter Olympics. The possibility that Vice-Premier Alexander Zhukov could be appointed as controller here made another candidate for this position – Economic Development and Trade Minister Herman Gref – counterattack and propose establishment of a special state corporation and become its head.

Besides, the presence of law enforcement, national security, and supervisory bodies in the economy has become more obvious, which is in line with the general strategy to create state capitalism with mobilization economy traits. Particularly, the General Prosecutor’s Office won the case against The Russian Standard bank that had earlier been able to contest claims from consumer market supervision group Rosprirodnadzor in courts. This case may encourage other state bodies venture administrative expansion.

Major events Jul 30, 2007 - Aug 19, 2007