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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (35) 671

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (35) 671

August 20-26, 2007

Main political trends of the week

The end of the holiday season did not lead to a stirrup of the political life in the country, which can be explained by its high intensity in July and the first half of August, which was not traditional comparing to previous years.

Recently, two tendencies have been noticeable around the «successors» race. First, the president has begun to interfere with economy management real-time, which allows him maintain the initiative and keep the supreme arbiter authority. Another tendency is Vladimir Putin’s frequent tours with Sergei Ivanov. Hence, the latter has cemented the «No.1 successor candidate» status. However, in the next couple of weeks the trend may change. With the first of September is just around the corner Dmitry Medvedev may start dominating TV and press with his Education project and this way catch up with Sergei Ivanov.

The parties were affected by the outcome of the elections in Kazakhstan, where only one, president-loyal, party got into the parliament, whereas the rest failed to overcome the passing barrier. The idea that Russia may wind up with a one-party parliament was backed by the presidential administration’s homeland policy deputy chief Alexander Kharichev, who said that The United Russia would win the general election with 44% of votes. In the mean time, leader of The Just Russia Sergei Mironov was trying to at least reduce the gap from the main «power’s party» as he continued putting forward clearly populist initiatives that have practically no chances to be authorized.

As to government officials, last week it was again reported that Healthcare and Social Development Ministry could be reformed and its head Mikhail Zurabov could be demoted or even fired. Most likely, this rumor is grounded, which may be supported by the resumed law enforcement raids in the firms affiliated with the healthcare ministry. However, Zurabov’s head will roll not sooner than 4-6 weeks before election (general or presidential), for the power to extract the biggest possible profit from the layoff.

Another noteworthy tidbit that came about last week was the start of competition for the key jobs in the Investigation Committee that should start working September 6. There are three main players in this standoff – acting head of the IC Alexander Bastrykin, Minister of Justice Vladimir Ustinov, and General Prosecutor Yuri Chaika. The latter’s office last week continued replacing the authority it lost after the IC’s establishment by getting into new spheres.

Rotation inside the Defense Ministry continued. Though not yet confirmed, it has been reported that Head of Plesetsk-based space center Anatoly Bashlakov would be promoted and become Chief Commander for Morale & Welfare. However, he may face some serious issues – shortly after this information came about, mass media reported on non-manual relations among the soldiers that guard the space center.

The situation around the Russian Federal Property Fund escalated after it faced charges from the administrators of the Federal Bailiff Service of Russia. In this case, the officials involved in the standoff are competing for the vast financial streams from forfeit goods.

Finally, mass media spread another «leak» on the soon acquisition of Surgutneftegaz by the state-owned Rosneftegaz that owns the controlling stake of Rosneft. In case the tidbit is confirmed, this will lead to another wave of escalation between Russia Bank clan and the law enforcement and national security high brass for the control of SNG.

Major events Aug 20, 2007 - Aug 26, 2007

EventTo whose benefitTo whose disadvantageWhat to expect
It has been reported that Mikhail Kislitsin could be appointed deputy chairman of the Investigation CommitteeAlexander BastrykinVladimir UstinovThe competition for IC will continue at least until September 6
Anti-graft laws supervision group has been formed inside the General Prosecutor’s OfficeYuri Chaika Yuri Chaika’s attempts to compensate for the lost functions will continue
A group has been formed inside the General Prosecutor’s Office to supervise preparations for Winter Olympics 2014Yuri ChaikaSergei Stepashin (?)It is highly possible that one of the main GPO divisions will be formed on the basis of this new group
The speech of presidential administration’s homeland policy deputy chief Alexander Kharichev  at the regional election committees chairpersons’ gatheringUR, JR The figures in the report made by Kharichev may be considered premature «guiding lines» for election committees’ officials
Sergei Mironov proposed to lift income tax for the citizens of Siberia and the Far EastJRURThis initiative may slightly improve JR’s popularity among Siberia and Far East voters
Sergei Pisarev was appointed deputy director general of Channel 1URJR, KPRF, LDPR, SPS, YablokoPisarev will be lobbying for UR’s interests
JR opened summer youth camp  This camp will be substantially smaller than the Seliger camp
LDPR and Yabloko internet sites attacked by hackersYabloko, LDPRJR?Due to the limited access to information resources, small parties will continue using non-standard ways to gain attention
Sergei Mironov announced plans to run for president  This statement will not lead to any consequences for The Just Russia’s image
The campaign to increase wages in motor car industry has been announcedIndependent trade unions The campaign will gain attention and authorities will «advise» industries to meet the workers halfway
Federal Anti-Monopoly Service has instituted criminal case against RostekhnadzorFASRostekhnadzorThe standoff between the two groups will intensify
A bill increasing the insurance part of pension has been introduced in the State DumaJR The party will continue introducing populist bills in the State Duma
UR proposed to increase minimal wage index to 4 thousand rubles from December 1 2007URJRThe United Russia will continue proposing moderately populist bills but will not become competition for JR in this field
The Club of Municipalities Heads has been establishedURJRThis organization will become a powerful instrument for The United Russia trying to resist The Just Russia’s attempts to find support from municipalities’ heads against governors
Authority entrepreneur Vladimir Barsukov (Kumarin) has been arrestedKremlin’s siloviki wing (?)Criminal bosses of St. PetersburgIt is possible that Barsukov will face the fate of Roman Tsepov

 

Volume: 13 pages


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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