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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (37) 673

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (37) 673

September 3 - 9, 2007

Main political trends of the week

Despite the official start of the parliament election campaign last week government players were on their toes. A possible explanation for this is the expectation of soon discharge of the cabinet of ministers and consecutive redistribution of authority in the executive branch.

The format of the competition between the «successors» finally changed last week. According to the new «rules of the game» Sergei Ivanov is absolute leader, who accompanies President Vladimir Putin during his trips across the country and acts as his understudy.

Party life last week was also tied with the reformation of power. Earlier reports that skater Svetlana Zhurova would appear among the top three candidates in The United Russia’s election ticket were refuted, which once again spurred discussions about UR-nominated successor and the third candidate in the «power party’s» ticket. Delay with the issue of the presidential decree setting election date was to help UR deal with the time trouble it had gotten itself into thank to late pre-election gathering. The main intrigue of the upcoming election will be not the contest of parties but attendance of voters, which must be high for the election results’ to look legit. Incidentally, despite the official start of the Duma campaign, practically all candidates for parliament mandates still haven’t decided on their first three candidates in the ticket.

The Just Russia’s troubles continued to grow – last week several State Duma deputies in the JR’s parliament faction said they would exit the party as protest against the inclusion of former LDPR deputy Aleksei Mitrofanov into the party’s ticket. Besides that, two donors of the party – Alexander Lebedev and Alexander Babakov – are in struggle.

Competition between government players has become quite chaotic. Yuri Chaika’s attack on Investigation Committee Chief Alexander Bastrykin – namely the razzmatazz around the «Politkovskaya case» – flopped. Practically all Chaika’s protégés, particularly Head of the GPO’s Investigation Division Sergei Ivanov, were not accepted into the new office, in which heads of the key departments have not been appointed yet.

Rather curious is the alignment of forces in the Rosnanotech corporation. The names of director general and members of the supervisory board were announced last week. Apart from the representatives of the Russia Bank the Nanotechnology Corporation Supervisory Board included Herman Gref and a representative of his ally – Head of the President’s Expert Office Arkadi Dvorkovich. Anatoly Chubais’s protégé Leonid Melamed assumed director general post. However, most likely this «diversity of colors» will not spur a conflict because Melamed has business ties with Sergei Kiriyenko, who in turn partners with the Russia Bank owners.

Last week it was rumored that the head of the Financial Market Monitoring Agency (Rosfinmonitoring) Viktor Zubkov would be fired, his tenure expired almost 12 months ago. This time watchers predict that he will be appointed head of the financial markets and money circulation committee in the Federation Council. This position should soon become vacant because its incumbent chief Sergei Vasiliyev is moving to the Development Bank.

Major events Sep 03, 2007- Sep 09, 2007

EventTo whose benefitTo whose disadvantageWhat to expect
Leader of The Patriots of Russia said Dmitry Rogozin and Gennady Seleznev could be included into his party’s election ticket.Dmitry RogozinJR,
Gennady Semigin (?)
If this happens, Rogozin will benefit, whereas Semigin will fail to attract the majority of the Homeland’s voters
JR proposed to make alimony payments not less than living wage for kidsJR This initiative will help JR to slightly improve support among women
Names of the director general and supervisory board members for Rosnanotech have been announcedAnatoly Chubais,
Herman Gref
the Kovalchuk brothers (?)All three powerhouses represented in the corporation will be able to avoid confrontation
Sergei Ivanov accompanies President Vladimir Putin on a trip to KamchatkaSergei IvanovDmitry MedvedevIvanov will finally start dominating the «successors’ race» and change its format
It was rumored that JR Deputy Alexander Lebedev could be taken down from the party’s ticketAlexander Babakov,
Yuri Luzhkov
Alexander LebedevThe competition between the two donors of The Just Russia will continue
Several State Duma deputies in the JR’s parliament faction said they would exit the party as protest against the inclusion of former LDPR deputy Aleksei Mitrofanov into the party’s ticketJR,
KPRF
Sergei MitrofanovSuch scandals will repeat in the future, not only on the federal level at that
It was rumored that the head of the Financial Market Monitoring Agency (Rosfinmonitoring) Viktor Zubkov would be firedAleksei Kudrin (?)Viktor IvanovZubkov’s layoff is inevitable, Kudrin will make steps to put his protégé on the vacant position
Deputy Ivan Novitski moved from Yabloko – United Democrats to The United RussiaURSPS,
Yabloko
This step will be symbolical for the voters supporting Kremlin-loyal rightist parties
Vladimir Putin chastised Herman Gref and his ministry for poor work in Kamchatka Herman GrefThis step may be considered as a part of preparations for the Gref’s layoff or government’s discharge
Heads of several regional directorates of the Federal Customs Service were swoppedAndrei Belyaninov This measure will help reduce corruption in the customs but insignificantly
Reports of UFAS Voronezh’ plans to institute a case against MDM-BankIgor Artemyev The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service will continue trying to expand into the banking services market
Finance Ministry completed the Consumer Credit billAleksei KudrinYuri Chaika,
Gennady Onischenko,
Igor Artemyev
If this bill is passed, Finance Ministry will kick several watchdogs (Rospotrebnadzor, FAS, and partially GPO) from the consumer credits market
Stanislav Yeremeyev left the post of SPS St. Petersburg HeadNikita Belykh,
Anton Bakov
 Replacement of the heads of SPS regional offices disagreeing with the federal administration’s course will be continued
FAS claimed FSO had violated the state order law  It is possible that this stand off will lead to the second round of the conflict between the Kremlin’s guarding bodies and the siloviki clan
Head of Rosprom Boris Aleshin was appointed AvtoVAZ CEO  This replacement is merely formal because Aleshin has always been in the team of Rosoboronexport Head Sergei Chemezov

 

Volume: 17 pages

 


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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