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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (39) 675

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (39) 675

September 17-23, 2007

Main political trends of the week

Last week the situation in the successors race and government was controversial, whereas the actions of party players were more judicious.

Vladimir Putin’s strategy to restrain his successor with the help of a checks and balances system progressed further. Apart from taking total control of the government and appointing trusted ones to key posts, the president proceeded with closer watch for the parliamentary campaign and met with several party leaders.

Acting ministers and wannabes are trying to use the pause in the government’s work to their advantage. Those who are more likely to be sacked have stepped into the shadow and showed no activities, whereas their possible successors have been trying to prove their effectiveness. The ministers, whose future in the government is obscure – mainly Herman Gref and Aleksey Kudrin - are doing just the same.

Despite that mass media attention to the general election campaign has grown weak against the background of the discussions regarding the successor and the staff of the new government, the news about parties kept coming out. This happened largely because the majority of parties that are good to run for parliament held gatherings and announced their tickets last week.

The gatherings of Yabloko and LDPR showed that during the election these parties plan to maintain the image that has established over the years of participation in big politics but will have to transform it slightly. LDPR found itself in a difficult situation because The United Russia has the monopoly for the electors voting for strong state and debates around the national issue are currently vetoed. Vladimir Zhirinovsky tried a sophisticated maneuver – included entrepreneur Andrei Lugovoi, accused by the British authorities of assassinating Litvinenko, into the top of the party’s general election ticket. On the one hand, this should confirm the party’s adherence to strong state and on the other, take the party’s ideology to a sphere, where UR does not have monopoly - foreign politics.

SPS’s gathering did not uncork any surprises. As was announced earlier, the top three SPS candidates on the ticket will be Nikita Belykh, Boris Nemtsov, and writer Mariette Chudakova. This lineup seems to be compromise between the Belykh-Bakov tandem that stand for the leftist shift and Chubais-Gozman tandem that is unhappy with the party’s populist slogans and wanted Yegor and Maria Gaidar on the ticket.

KPRF leader Gennady Zyuganov’s efforts proved successful – he forced the Kremlin-critical Ivan Melnikov out of the ticket and at the same time convinced Nikolai Kharitonov to enter the top of the ticket, which will allow KPRF improve support among rustic voters.

Major events Sep 17, 2007 - Sep 23, 2007

EventTo whose benefitTo whose disadvantageWhat to expect
First Deputy Minister Alexander Belousov superannuatedAnatoly Serdyukov (?)Sergei Ivanov (?)Further developments depend on whether the president will confirm Serdyukov’s resignation
Anatoly Serdyukov sent in his resignationViktor Zubkov (?) In case Putin confirms his resignation the former minister will be offered a comparable job
Yabloko held gatheringSPSYablokoKovalev is not a poor choice for the party because he is the symbol of the fighting for rights of the late 1980’s-early 1990’s
LDPR held gatheringLDPR Lugovoi’s inclusion should confirm the party’s adherence to strong state without hindering UR
SPS held gatheringSPS Mariette Chudakov is a figure of compromise and will not tell on the party’s results
KPRF held gathering Gennady ZyuganovGennady SemiginThe inclusion of Nikolai Kharitonov will improve rustic support
The People’s Union Party held gathering Gennady SemiginThis party will act as a spoiler for The Patriots of Russia, LDPR, and partially JR
The Agrarian Party held gathering  The party may manage to attract some of KPRF’s base voters but the result will still be insignificant
Vladimir Putin met with the leader of the JR Duma faction Alexander BabakovAlexander BabakovAlexander LebedevBabakov will continue wiping out Kremlin-critical members
Vladimir Putin met with LDPR Chief ZhirinovskyVladimir Zhirinovsky LDPR will most likely make it to the State Duma
Vladimir Putin met with KPRF Chief ZyuganovGennady Zyuganov (?) KPRF will continue making the stance of an opposition force but its criticism will not be constructive
UR and CPRF participated in televised debatesURKPRFKPRF will continue posing as the “party of revenge” on TV
Minister of Interior Rashid Nurgaliyev proposed to shut down the night clubs that sell drugsRashid NurgaliyevViktor CherkesovThis proposal will not lead to action
Viktor Pokhmelkin moved from The Just Russia to The Civil ForceThe Civil ForceJRThe loss of the politician that specializes in rights protection will tell negatively on the JR election potential
Yuri Chikhanchin appointed head of the PM’s staffViktor Zubkov PM’s secretariat may be fortified at the expense of the government secretariat
DM’s employee attached to the Audit Chamber Yuri Gaidukov arrested on graft charges Sergei StepashinThe case against Gaidukov may be used to start a large-scale anti-corruption campaign
MVD raided several banks and arrested their employeesRashid Nurgaliyev This operation will wind up being a short-term PR stunt
Viktor Zubkov chaired his first government meetingViktor ZubkovIgor Levitin, Sergei Ivanov (?), Andrei Belyaninov (?)Viktor Zubkov will continue stressing his difference from the Mikhail Fradkov’s chairmanship style
Sergei Ivanov met with President Vladimir PutinSergei Ivanov These meetings will be regular, which will allow Ivanov to keep the status of one of the successor candidates
Dmitry Medvedev said a Russian open code computer software would be developed by 2010Dmitry Medvedev Such assertions of Medvedev will help him remain in the news
Natural Resources Ministry said the preliminary results of the Arctic 2007 expedition showed that Russia can lay claims on a fuel-rich Arctic shelf districtYuri Trutnev This statement should not be perceived seriously because it was used to demonstrate Trutnev’s effectiveness as minister
Economic Development and Trade Minister Herman Gref said the value of contracts signed during the economic forum in Sochi was 22 billion US dollarsHerman Gref See the previous point
High Qualification Panel of Judges endorsed the former chairman of the Central Regional Court of Sochi Vasili Voloshin for the position of the chairman of the Moscow Regional CourtVladimir Ustinov, Igor Sechin The president will sign the respective order

Volume: 17 pages


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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