Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (41) 677

October 1-7, 2007

Main political trends of the week

The main event of last week was Vladimir Putin’s decision to lead United Russia’s parliament ticket, which had consequences for the power transition format, configuration of the parliament, and the dynamic of the general election campaign.

The president’s decision to head the United Russia’s State Duma ticket may not only help the power’s party boost its popularity. It will also improve the status of State Duma after the election scheduled for December 2. Besides, the president’s move has demonstrated to western partners interested in Russian oil and gas supplies that power in Russia will be handed down to a handpicked successor and consequently the state of affairs in the country’s energy industry will remain the same. In the mean time, specific scenario of power transition in 2008 remains an intrigue. Putin as prime minister does not seem to be the best-choice scenario, therefore other variants are possible – State Duma chairman, Gazprom head, Public Chamber chairman, and so on, one not excluding the other at that.

Vladimir Putin at the top of the United Russia’s candidates list will not just boost the party’s popularity but also add responsibility to the “power’s party” because now its mistakes will have consequences for the head of state’s rating. UR’s parliament ticket is a compromise – it includes party officials and governors (as the “motors”), as well as representatives of medium and large businesses. Thereby, the president’s request to “purge” the ticket of “oligarchs” referred only to the most influential entrepreneurs, such as Suleiman Kerimov or Sergei Bogdanchikov. Some watchers claim that the parliament race is almost over because the result is predictable, however, this seems to be groundless. UR’s leadership is unquestionable but the losses that The Just Russia and to a lesser extent LDPR have suffered give more chances to small parties that could only act as spoilers before. If things go right for them, 1-2 dwarf parties have a chance to get into the State Duma collecting just the necessary percentage of votes – 7-8%.

Last week, government players started conflicting again and various power clans clashed. In the first case, the main conflict was between Regional Development Minister Dmitry Kozak and the new Minister of Economic Development and Trade Elvira Nabiullina, who said she didn’t want a part of the EDTM’s functions to go to the Regional Development Ministry.

In the latter case, the clash was between FSB and Drug Traffic Control Agency, which led to the arrest of several high-rank DTCA officials, including the “right hand” of the agency’s head Viktor Cherkesov – General Lieutenant Alexander Bulbov. This conflict has long roots and is still far from solution. New players will be joining this standoff. This is proved by the appointment of former PM Mikhail Fradkov, affiliated with the Kremlin’s “security officials,” as the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Most likely, FIS that until recently has been neutral will join the conflict on the FSB’s side.

Major events Oct 1, 2007 - Oct 7, 2007

Volume: 17 pages