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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (43) 679
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (43) 679
October 15-21, 2007
Main political trends of the week
The live call-in show with President Putin as a host had promised to be a sensation. However, no significant political statements were made. This indicates that the fundamental decisions highly important for the post-Putin alignment of forces will be made after December 2.
The questions-and-answers show turned out to be a “technical procedure” because the majority of questions asked dealt with socio-economic status of various population groups. Incidentally, the president covertly expressed support for The United Russia without violating election laws. He also pointed to a quite topical problem – increase of income gaps between the rich and the poor.
Rising food prices dominated mass media early in the week but almost completely disappeared by the end of the week. There may be two explanations for that. First, executive power services, especially regional, started sealing agreements with food suppliers, which allowed the government to curb soaring prices. Secondly, last week officials continued encouraging social optimism, using the victory of the Russian national team of England as handy tool.
Nothing really significant happened in the party segment either, which may be explained by the parliament campaign getting to midterm – the period in-between submitting documents and registering tickets. Exactly a half of runners – 7 out of 14 – preferred collecting signatures instead of leaving a deposit, which is quite risky pick. However, it is unlikely that more than 2-3 parties will have their signatures rejected because the Kremlin needs pluralism to make the election results look legitimate. Besides, multiple runners is a favorable format for The United Russia because it will allow the “power’s party” to redistribute the votes of outsider parties to its benefit.
Against the background of outward calmness of public politics, the conflict has moved to the government. The standoff over Sergei Shargunov’s candidacy wound up with the victory of his rivals and his exclusion from JR’s tickets. This fact may show that Vladimir Putin is not really after balanced party competition because Shargunov’s exclusion is a serious disadvantage for the Sergei Mironov’s party. However, last week the president waded into the turf war between security services creating a new state committee to fight illegal drugs and naming Viktor Cherkesov as its chief. Besides, the president continued placing members of his own team, mainly former spy officers, in key positions. This time Putin appointed Nikolai Tokarev as the head of Transneft.
Major events Oct 15, 2007 - Oct 21, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin hosted live call-in show | United Russia | The initiatives that build post-Putin checks and balances will be announced after December 2 | |
| Nikolai Tokarev appointed president of Transneft | presidential administration’s security officials | Tokarev will be Putin’s henchman in Transneft, ESPO pipe will advance | |
| Evgeni Roizman said he was leaving The Just Russia | UR | JR | The exodus of local elites from the Mironov’s party will continue |
| Sergei Shargunov’s exclusion from the top three on the JR’s federal parliament ticket | UR | JR | A scandal is possible after Shargunov will spread discrediting information about JR heads |
| General Prosecutor’s Office requested cancellation of the ruling against FDCS employee Alexander Bulbov | Yuri Chaika | Chaika will take part in the infighting as an ally of Sergei Stepashin and Viktor Cherkesov | |
| Herman Gref appointed head of Sberbank | Herman Gref | We expect that the main members of Kazmin’s team will leave the bank | |
| Yuri Chaika and Sergei Stepashin proposed a unified controlling agency on the basis of the presidential administration’s directorate | Yuri Chaika, Sergei Stepashin | Nikolai Patrushev | The president will use the initiatives in his further steps |
| Viktor Zubkov appointed EDTM the coordinator of the establishment of the Federal Agency for State Boarder Procurement | Elvira Nabiullina, Aleksey Kudrin | Nikolai Patrushev | Patrushev will try to take revenge for the first defeat and delegate FSB officers to the new agency |
| Establishment of the State Anti-Drug Committee | Viktor Cherkesov | Nikolai Patrushev | The new committee will try to compete with the National Anti-Terrorist Committee |
| Reportedly, former Deputy Head of Rosatom Andrei Malyshev may be appointed deputy head of the Nanotechnology Corporation | Sergei Kiriyenko, Kovalchuk brothers | Anatoly Chubais | If appointed, Malyshev will secure the interests of Mikhail Kovalchuk |
Volume: 16 pages
Other issues:
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007