Russia 2006. Report on Transformation

The aim of the Europe−Russia Economic Forum is to create a conducive atmosphere for the development of political and economic cooperation between the EU countries and their neighbors. The Forum is independent and impartial in fulfillment of its mission.

Report main thesis

2006 proved to be a year confirming all the previously observed trends in the development of the state. A break−up in the Russian political elite led to the formation of alternative ways of the country’s development, to the emergence of entirely different pictures of the country’s future.

The existence of competing nomenclature and political groups in Putin’s entourage, on the one hand, enables President Putin to stay in control without allowing a destabilization of the situation. On the other hand, it increases the risks of the system.

Putin is most likely to leave office in 2008, the country will have a new president. On the other hand, everybody understands that Putin will remain the most influential figure.

But what power configuration will safeguard him against the risk of his successor’s unauthorized behavior? How to satisfy the political ambitions of the two major nomenclature and political groups in Putin’s entourage which we defined yet in our previous reports as “siloviki” and “liberals”?

The duality of the Russian system remains in place, the country increasingly resembles its national coat of arms, depicting a double−headed eagle that looks in different directions.

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