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Main page > Conferences > Russia and India&China Prospects of Energy Cooperation
Russia and India&China Prospects of Energy Cooperation
Key topics of Konstantin Simonov's speech at The International conference “Asia-Pacific Security Challenges: Implications for Europe and the Atlantic Alliance”
Prague, Czech Republic, September 9, 2008.
(Read this speech's presentation in PDF 
150 KB)
China and India: Much in Common
- Traditional stake on coal: 56% in energy generation of India, 65% in energy generation in China
- Lack of Oil and Gas Reserves
- Forecast of economic growth is 8-12%
- Diagnostic: hydrocarbon starvation
Source: EIA
First Problem will be Oil
- Serious gap between oil production and consumption: 90 mln tons in India and 180 mln tons in China
Source: BP
Second Problem will be Gas
Source: BP
- Gas production in India in 2006 was 30,4 bcm, consumption - 36,6 bcm
- The serious increasing of consumption: the production of gas will be behind consumption very soon
- International Energy Agency: China import of gas in 2020 will be 80-160 bcm
- Forecast of gas consumption in India : 2010 - 75,6 bcm, 2012 - 114 bcm, 2030 - 243 bcm. Forecast of production in 2030 is less then 40 bcm
Source: BP
Crusade for Oil and Gas
- At the end of 2006 India invested more them $5,5 bln to foreign upstream ($2,8 bln in Russia). Projects in 14 countries
- But energy expansion has serious limitation
- Europe and United States will be competitors of IC in Arabian Gulf, Central Asia and Africa
China and India in Energy Trap
| 10 Main Countries on Proved Reserves of Oil (2007) | 10 Main Countries on Proved Reserves of Gas (2007) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 21,3% | Russia | 25,2% |
| Iran | 11,2% | Iran | 15,7% |
| Iraq | 9,3% | Quatar | 14,4% |
| Kuwait | 8,2% | Saudi Arabia | 4,0% |
| UAE | 7,9% | USA | 3,4% |
| Venezuela | 7,0% | UAE | 3,4% |
| Russia | 6,4% | Nigeria | 3,0% |
| Libya | 3,3% | Venezuela | 2,9% |
| Kazakhstan | 3,2% | Algeria | 2,5% |
| Nigeria | 2,9% | Iraq | 1,8% |
- Oil: more diffused raw material but the problem of transportation (Strait of Hormuz)
- Gas: three countries control 55% of proved reserves
Diversification of Ånergy Supply – Impermissible Profusion
- Sutuation with gas is the most dramatic
- LNG: the beginning of supply from Australia, Algeria, Nigeria, Oman, Malaysia and Indonesia. But the stake on LNG can be problematic. This market is very competitive
- Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Burma – local solutions (no serious reserves, no possibilities of significant increasing of production)
- Central Asia: “word of honour reserves”
- Turkmenistan: Production of gas in 2007 was 67,4 bcm ( 2,7%)
- “Word of honour”: 250 bcm in 2015 ( 370%!!!)
Two Gas Alternative
- Real alternative: Russia or Iran
- Iran: two Problems. Political Future and Transportation Routes. Pipeline form Iran to India through Pakistan. More than 2000 km of political instability
- Russia: the problem of Choice between European and Asian Markets
- January-August, 2008: oil production 0,6% gas production 3,1%
- Special thanks from China and India to the theorists of “energy weapon” and “diversification of energy supply to Europe”
Thank you!
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