Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2009

The National Energy Security Fund presents a Series of analysis reports dedicated to the central issues of Russian fuel and energy sector development. Subscribers are given a detailed picture of the condition of the Russian fuel and energy sector and its medium-term development scenarios.

The sources of information encompass NESF proprietary data, sector statistics, oil and gas companies’ figures, federal and regional media, conferences and round table discussions.

The series consists of 8 (eight) reports to be published in February through December 2009.

1. Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?

(March 10, 2009)

War in Georgia has seriously changed the balance of forces in the region. The US is trying to make Europe build oil and gas pipelines bypassing Russia. In doing so, it is augmenting its military presence, which increases transit risks, dramatically.

It is also uncertain whether resources will be available: only Iran has major proven reserves of gas, but the country is actually under siege. Turkmenistan remains a “black box,” and Islamists are stepping up their influence there too. Yet in Europe many believe the Central Asian republics and the Caspian Sea region to be salvation from energy dependence upon Russia. Russia, too, has to allow for the interests of the states in the region.

Next year is expected to bring transition to “free-market relations” in the gas sector. Yet how exactly will this mechanism operate? Who will have local hydrocarbons and what will be the price of having them? Will they be produced in the necessary quantities?

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2. New Tax Treatment for the Industry

(April 20, 2009)

Putin’s term as prime minister has been marked with quite a few tax initiatives.

The oil and gas sector has already received a range of fiscal presents, but it is not going to be satisfied with them. Under way is reform of mineral resources extraction tax. Zero tax rates are offered to offshore projects. Clearly enough, the industry retains its status as “Putin’s favourite.” Overall, however, a “tax counterreformation” can be observed in the country: social deductions are raised under the pretext of a reduction in fiscal revenue and no VAT rate decrease will be granted to business.

The report deals with the new tax reality in which the oil and gas industry has found itself.

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3. Government System of Oil and Gas Sector Management: the First Year in the New Format

(June 1, 2009)

One year has passed since the new political system was launched. The first important changes in the system of government decision-making can now be summarized. An understanding can be formed of how the new Ministry of Energy performs.

• What the new person in charge of the fuel and energy sector, Igor Sechin, has achieved
• Who is “capitalising” on environmental issues and the problem of exploration and prospecting
• How relations evolve between the respective ministries and services/agencies
• Who, after all, is number one in the sector: the president or the prime minister

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4. Russian Gas Export Routes: pipes and gas carriers

(July 13, 2009)

Russia has finally entered the global liquefied gas market. It is essential to understand what development prospects this very important line of business has. And, also, estimate the preparedness of the producing projects, first of all Yamal and Shtokman. Export via pipelines is not forgotten either.

The report offers an assessment of the condition of the key projects for Russian gas export to Europe and new markets.

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5. Offshore Wars and Distribution of New Oil and Gas Blocks

(August 31, 2009)

“Giants” are on a collision course over undistributed assets. Rosneft, Gazprom, and Gazprom Neft are desperately fighting for the continental shelf and Eastern Siberia. Also, foreign partners are being actively drawn into the distribution of blocks in promising areas. The only question is when, after all, commercial production will begin. And what will be the destination of exports from the east of the country.

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6. Emergence of a Putin-sponsored Oil and Gas Aristocracy: Clans at War for Property

(October 12, 2009)

Many believe that Putin is attempting to achieve trouble-free operation of the system of passing power down from the predecessor to the successor. Yet no less important is to design a hereditary property system. Therefore, privatisation is becoming an increasingly obvious tendency in the sector evolution. It is quite another matter that not all present-day owners of existing private companies will have a «ticket to the future».

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7. Gazprom: a True Giant or a Colossus with Feet of Clay?

(November 30, 2009)

Gazprom continues to be the leading corporation in the Russian fuel and energy sector. It is also the central company to Putin. It is control over Gazprom that the main Russian groups of bureaucrats and politicians fight for, while Western corporations dream about partnership with the company. But then, Gazprom is also facing a train of challenges: in finance, production, and export. Who has oversight of Gazprom and what does the foreseeable future have in store for it?

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8. Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2009 and Prospects for 2010

(December 28, 2009)

In this report, NESF summarises the year in the oil and gas industry:

• the condition of production
• tax policy
• legislative innovations
• clashes between clans of bureaucrats and politicians
• industry development forecast to the end of Medvedev’s first term 

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