Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009

The Fund’s traditional report summarises the key developments in the oil and gas industry this year.

The year 2008 has proved very complicated and controversial. A sharp rise in oil prices was replaced with an equally dramatic fall in them. Vladimir Putin moved to the office of prime minister and reshuffled the entire system of administration in the sector. A radical tax reform began. The operating rules for non-residents changed. Wars between state companies and redistribution of property were in full swing.

The report offers an in-depth discussion of the following subjects:

• Economic situation in the industry

  • Who capitalised on expensive oil?
  • Key implications of the decline in oil and gas prices
  • Situation in the upstream segment
  • «Presents from Putin» and their ability to stop the fall in the oil industry
  • Trends in the export of hydrocarbons

• New political system of administration in the oil and gas sector: first outputs

  • Role of Putin as prime minister in the sector
  • Activities of Igor Sechin as deputy prime minister in charge of energy
  • Bureaucratic wars for geology and ecology
  • Distribution of licences between state companies
  • War between Rosneft and Gazprom on different fronts
  • Battle for the shelf, Eastern Siberia, and the Far East

• Changes in the export strategy

  • «Wars of pipelines»: BPS-2 vs. ESPO
  • End of the formation of the pro-Chinese and pro-European «parties» in the Russian fuel and energy sector

• Non-residents in Russia

  • Tougher control over strategic investment

• Foreign expansion of Russian energy companies

  • Western and «anti-Western» lines in the expansion of co-operation
  • Attempts to proceed with the «exchange of assets» policy in relations with Western majors
  • Intensification in South America and North Africa

• Medium-term forecast

  • Scenarios with different levels of oil prices

The contents of the report: