Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector

The plan of the pivot to the East began to be implemented in the Russian oil and gas sector long before another worsening of relations with the West. The motives behind it were most pragmatic.

Consumption of oil and gas grew in Asia, and limited local reserves made it possible to forecast with confidence that Asian countries would top the list of importers of hydrocarbons. Meanwhile, Russia does have reserves of oil and gas in the East that could be monetised.

Also, Russian state monopolies and their contractors are pleased to develop new transport infrastructure – and eastern projects have given them ample opportunity.

More than four years of life under sanctions have showed that from a political point of view too, the pivot to the East has proved correct. So what are its actual results?

Detailed analysis is presented in the new report prepared by the National Energy Security Fund and answering the following questions:

• What are the prospects of gas market growth in Asia?

  • Is there a place for Russia in it?

• At what rates are resources being developed and infrastructure created for the beginning of gas supply to China by pipeline?

• Should one expect the beginning of supply to China from the Urengoy cluster?

  • What are the pros and cons of the Power of Siberia 2 project?
  • What are the difficulties of negotiations with the Chinese?

• What market do new LNG projects target?

  • How much liquefied gas will come to Asian countries from Yamal and Gyda?

• What awaits the Sakhalin gas production centre

  • How will gas from Sakhalin-1 and new projects on the island’s shelf really be monetised?

• In what way is the infrastructure being used that was created for oil export to the east?

• What is the structure of oil supply to China?

• Why has China never become a serious investor in the Russian upstream segment and a major shareholder in Rosneft?

• Will the trend continue towards a decline in oil supply to Europe in favour of a dramatic growth of import into China?

Contents of the report: