Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe

There is a reason why the report has a second title, "Can LNG Replace Russian Gas Exports?" It reflects how unusual the current situation in the European gas market is.

Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. This, however, is still a respectable volume.

European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas.

Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate.

Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision. That is why, actually, we have decided to answer this question and thereby reconstruct the logic behind the thinking of present-day officials in Brussels.

If the Europeans believe that enough LNG has appeared on the market, decisions regarding Gazprom may be tough indeed. If there is no solution to the gas equation for the time being, certain flexibility might appear.

You will find the following subjects in the report:

Preliminary export results of 2022 for Gazprom

European plans to get rid of Russian gas

• Spring plans for 2022 and reality

Analysis of LNG plants already under construction around the world and their prospects

Evaluation of future LNG projects

• Analysis of declared capacities and actual future volumes

Situation with contracts for new LNG

• Fears of potential investors and exporters of gas

Possible action for Gazprom

Forecast for the European gas balance in 2030

• Risks and realistic opportunities for the EU to get alternative gas volumes
• "Bottlenecks" in the strategy of complete abandonment of Gazprom supplies

Contents of the report: