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Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy

Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy

A new system of managing the oil and gas sector has been formed in general. It shows what staff conflicts we may witness in the near future.

However, it is also important to understand what the sector should expect. The oil and gas industry faces a series of crucial problems whose settlement is impossible to ignore further.

Putin obviously retained control over the oil and gas sector in 2008 to 2012. Yet, his return to the presidential chair may mean certain adjustment of the economic course.

Cancelation of the inertial policy in the oil and gas sector should be anticipated; otherwise it can lead to serious decline in production in the medium-term perspective.

The report elaborates on the following issues: :

The role of the oil and gas sector in the Russian economy
- Putin’s comeback as president was accompanied by a great number of economic declarations. The oil and gas sector was much discussed in them – often these were opposite ideas. What should we believe: promises to continue the course of economic diversification or pledges to rehabilitate the oil and gas sector and stake on it as innovation sector?
Russia’s budget policy
- To understand the future role of the oil and gas sector better it is necessary to analyze the draft budget for the next three years. It vividly demonstrates that the state is not ready to remove an “honorable duty” of the main state donor from the sector. The budget clearly shows what in reality Putin’s term “fiscal maneuver” means. Actually the sector should not expect serious taxation preferences. This concerns the gas industry actively attacked by the Cabinet and oil producers.
Struggle against stagnation of production amid new redistribution of property in the sector
- State policy in the sphere of privatization and its possible influence on production parameters
Export policy of the state
- Sharpening of the export question amid growth in the domestic demand and risks of production decline. The state encourages Russian companies to turn into global players, risks for the Russian upstream segment.
Forecast of developments

The contents of the report:

Introduction	3
Chapter 1. Role of Oil and Gas Industry in Russian Economy	5
Chapter 2. Struggle Against Decline in Production Amid New Redistribution in FES	15
2.1. Privatization – Clan War for Property Instead of Strategic Choice	16
2.2. Agonizing Search for Growth Strategy	20
Chapter 3. Search for Export Strategy	36
Forecast of Developments	49

Date of issue:	August 6, 2012

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:

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There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.

Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities

The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.

Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality

World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.

Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Oil and Gas Sector Regulation and Interim Results in 2024. Outlook for 2025

A new government was formed in Russia in spring 2024. Sergey Tsivilyov became Energy Minister. The first six months of the new government’s regulation of the fuel and energy sector are already past, which enables drawing the first analytical conclusions. Therefore, interim production results for 2024 have a special place in this research. We analyse the past year in two papers at once, as has become a tradition already. The gas industry is considered in a separate report. Meanwhile, we focus on oil here. The report’s special value lies in the data of our own oil export estimation model.

Northern Logistics Route: Should One Expect a Breakthrough?

The Northern Sea Route and the Arctic in general were made a state priority even before the conflict in Ukraine. The key question is: can nice talk about the NSR as a profitable and strategic route and about Russia’s return to the Arctic be converted into actual breakthroughs making it possible to carry out at least the executive’s own plans? The strategic content concerning the NSR is relatively new, but many problems are old.

Current Status of Russian Oil Exports

Getting over the 2022-2024 sanctions is the most important test for the Russian oil industry. After the US, United Kingdom, EU, and G7 introduced a ban on buying Russian oil and petroleum products (with some exceptions) and the price cap mechanism, Russia managed to find alternative sale options in countries that are now commonly called the “Global South”. However, it is important to consider exports in detail. This is what we do in the new NESF report.

Green and Climate Agenda: Reset Attempt

In spite of dramatic worsening of relations with the West, the subject of climate has not vanished from Russian economic plans. Environmental issues have even topped the list of declared problems.

Government 2024: New Configuration of Regulators

While the result of the presidential election in Russia was absolutely predictable, further moves forming new government agencies were more intriguing. Eventually, on the one hand, it would seem that Putin chose to avoid radical decisions on the civilian part of the Cabinet. Prime Minister Mishustin kept his post and almost all deputy prime ministers did. On the other, there are still meaningful changes. First of all, the Ministry of Energy got a new head. This alone deserves special attention.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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