NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (51) 687

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (51) 687

December 10 - 16, 2007

Main political trends of the week

The key event of the last week and of the entire year was the nomination of Dmitry Medvedev for presidency. Vladimir Putin “backed the choice” of four parties that had nominated Medvedev. Despite that the main intrigue of the upcoming election campaign seems to be solved, there are still many questions. First, Vladimir Putin has not said that he would back only Medvedev. Secondly, there is still no certainty regarding the format of power transition.

One of the key questions is the future job of Vladimir Putin. The rumor that was spread last week that he would become prime minister seems dubious. Most likely, this was done to encourage Putin’s voters to back Dmitry Medvedev. This might also have been a request to Medvedev from the power groups that support him. In case Putin really takes the prime minister post, he will need to tweak several Constitution articles to expand PM authority at the expense of presidential powers.

Despite that the questions remain, several representatives of the power clans that have been suffering from the stir up of the Kremlin’s “security officials” clique are increasing their energies. In particular, Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin for the first time since the arrest of his Deputy Sergei Storchak managed to meet with him. The General Prosecutor’s Office announced plans to probe Investigation Committee – recently, IC has become the main instrument of the “security officials” clan against opponents. In other news, the Federal Supervision Agency for Customer Protection and Human Welfare (or Rospotrebnadzor) said it would audit retail banks. Earlier, the watchdog’s chief Gennady Onischenko had to retreat into the shadow after a row of defeats in the standoff with the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service, whose head Igor Artemyev is also affiliated with the “Kremlin’s security officials.”

The Kremlin’s “security heads” or siloviki tried to take several countermeasures and improve their image. In particular, deputy head of the presidential administration Igor Sechin met with the widows of the killed FSB officers and promised support to them, which may be interpreted as an attempt to unite the “siloviki corporation” around him. Secondly, the ally of this elite clan - Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov – told Aleksey Kudrin to find the billion rubles that was “lost on the way to the Far East,” which is seen as a hint at minister’s incompetence.

Despite that one of the clans that had lobbied for Dmitry Medvedev was the so-called “family group,” its protégés continue leaving the government following the former head of Healthcare and Social Development Minister Mikhail Zurabov. In particular, last week Gennady Batanov – the head of Pension Fund – requested resignation. Earlier, the same was done by the Chairperson of Social Insurance Fund Galina Karelova.

Major events Dec 10, 2007 - Dec 16, 2007

Event	To whose benefit	To whose disadvantage	What to expect
Vladimir Putin says that he “completely supports the choice” of four parties that plan to slate the First Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for presidency in March 2008	Dmitry Medvedev, Aleksey Kudrin, Alexander Voloshin, Anatoly Chubais	Sergei Ivanov, Viktor Zubkov, Kremlin’s siloviki	Elite clans should start uniting around the “successor”
The First Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says that “it is critically important for our country to keep Vladimir Putin in the highest position in the government – prime minister seat.”	Dmitry Medvedev		Putin will turn down the offer after March 2008
Igor Sechin addresses widows of FSB officers	Kremlin’s siloviki		Attempts to consolidate “siloviki community” around Sechin will continue
Deputy General Prosecutor Viktor Grin orders probe in Investigation Committee.	Yuri Chaika, Viktor Grin	Alexander Bastrykin, Nikolai Patrushev	GPO’s probe will reveal multiple violations in IC
Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin met with his deputy Sergei Storchak in the pre-trial detention center	Aleksey Kudrin	Kremlin’s siloviki	Storchak may be released on bail
Head of Pension Fund Gennady Batanov requests resignation	Tatyana Golikova		Resignations of Mikhail Zurabov’s protégés will continue
Alexander Zhukov appointed head of the government panel to estimate effectiveness of federal and regional executive services	Alexander Zhukov		De facto Zhukov will act in cooperation with his deputy in the panel Dmitry Kozak
Conflict between the followers of Alexander Babakov and Nikolai Levichev in A Just Russia		Sergei Mironov	The conflict will spoil Mironov’s reputation and he may activate manual control of the party
Moscow Arbitrage bans Rossvyazokhrankultura from giving GSM construction licenses in several regions of Russia	Leonid Reiman	Boris Boyarskov	The ruling will be contested in the Supreme Arbitrage Court and will likely be overruled
Chairperson of the Moscow Helsinki Group Lyudmila Alekseyeva refuses to cooperate wit Kremlin-critical opposition	Lyudmila Alekseyeva	Garry Kasparov, Eduard Limonov	The split of human rights movement will continue
Civil Force Party Leader Mikhail Barschevsky says the party may refuse to back Dmitry Medvedev			During the presidential election campaign the party imitate rightist opposition
Central Elections Committee says Dmitry Medvedev may be nominated for president only by one party	UR	JR, Agrarian Party, Civil Force	Agrarian Party and Civil Force may refuse to back Medvedev and nominate their own candidates
Rospotrebnadzor says it is ready to audit retail banks	Rospotrebnadzor	Federal Anti-Monopoly Service	FAS Head Igor Artemyev may propose a similar idea in the nearest time