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Main page > Products > The fuel and energy complex of Russia - Series of analytical reports > Oil and Gas Sector Regulation and Interim Results in 2024. Outlook for 2025
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation and Interim Results in 2024. Outlook for 2025
A new government was formed in Russia in spring 2024. Sergey Tsivilyov became Energy Minister.
The first six months of the new government’s regulation of the fuel and energy sector are already past, which enables drawing the first analytical conclusions. However, a final report cannot be confined to this. After all, it is companies themselves that in reality have to solve most oil and gas industry problems connected primarily with sanctions barriers and limited access to foreign markets.
The tax burden on the oil industry continues to grow too. Therefore, interim production results for 2024 have a special place in this research.
We analyse the past year in two papers at once, as has become a tradition already. The gas industry is considered in a separate report. Meanwhile, we focus on oil here. The report’s special value lies in the data of our own oil export estimation model.
The new report will give you the following information:
Net royalty payments from the oil and gas sector
- Key tax innovations in 2024
- Finance Ministry versus oil companies
Dynamics of prices for Russian crude oil and petroleum products
- Situation with discounts on Russian key export crude grades
Dynamics of Russian seaborne and pipeline oil exports
- Structure of Russian oil exports by key sales channels and grades
Dynamics of seaborne exports of Russia’s main petroleum products
Main methods used by Russian oil companies to circumvent sanctions restrictions in 20
Main changes in the system of government regulation of the oil and gas sector
- First evaluations of its efficiency
A “calendar of risks” to the Russian oil industry in 2025
Contents of the report:
| INTRODUCTION | 3 |
| DYNAMICS OF PRICES FOR RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: EFFECT ON GOVERNMENT REVENUE. SIZE OF DISCOUNTS | 6 |
| DYNAMICS OF RUSSIAN SEABORNE AND PIPELINE OIL EXPORTS | 14 |
| Structure of Russian oil exports by key sales channels and grades | 14 |
| Structure of Russian Pipeline Oil Exports by Destination | 24 |
| Russian Seaborne Oil Export Structure by Destination | 27 |
| DYNAMICS OF SEABORNE EXPORTS OF RUSSIAN MAIN PETROLEUM PRODUCTS | 38 |
| METHODS OF BYPASSING SANCTIONS IN 2024 | 54 |
| ‘NEW OLD’ SYSTEM OF STATE MANAGEMENT OF OIL AND GAS | 66 |
| ‘CALENDAR OF RISKS’ TO RUSSIAN OIL INDUSTRY IN 2025 | 70 |
| Date of release: | April 11, 2025 |
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If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
Other issues:
- Oil and Gas Sector Regulation and Interim Results in 2024. Outlook for 2025
- Northern Logistics Route: Should One Expect a Breakthrough?
- Current Status of Russian Oil Exports
- Green and Climate Agenda: Reset Attempt
- Government 2024: New Configuration of Regulators
- Lithium: New Energy Eldorado?
- West’s Latest Sanctions Decisions, Their Effect on Russian Oil and Gas Industry
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook
- Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
- New Logistics of Russian Oil Business
- Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
- Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
- Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
- Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
- Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
- Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
- Russian Oil Sector under Sanctions Pressure: Lessons of Survival
- Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East
- Green Agenda in Russia in New Political Epoch
- Hydrogen Agenda in Russia during Economic War with West
- Russian Oil Exports: from Covid-induced Demand Collapse to Sanctions War
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2021, 2022 outlook
- Gazprom on Pricing Crest. Current Situation in European Gas Market
- Oil Tax Policy: Squeezing Last or Chance to Restart Industry?
- Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Prospects for Russian Suppliers, Russia’s Potential Response
- The Arctic: Breakthrough Territory or White Hole?
- Hydrocarbon Rush to East: Current Status, Medium-term Prospects
- Hydrogen as New Energy Hope
- Russian Oil Production and Export in Time of Low Prices and OPEC+
- State Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2021 and Prospects 2022
- Gazprom: Life after Major Construction Projects
- The Arctic: a new state priority
- Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Sector: Choosing Priorities
- Import Substitution in Oil and Gas Industry: Myths and Reality
- Energy Transition and ‘Green Agenda’ in Russia: Fashion or Hard Reality?
- Druzhba Pipeline Accident: Key Implications
- New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
- Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
- Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
- Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
- Digitisation and Its Implications for Oil and Gas: Myths and Possible Reality
- Services and Mechanical Engineering for Oil and Gas: Are Industry’s Foundations Secure?
- Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued
- Arctic: Soviet-type Gigantomania or Breakthrough Project?
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
- Gazprom on Path to New Reality
- Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
- Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector
- New government structure and FES: Reformatting the state system administrating the sector
- Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?
- Sanctions Against Russian Oil and Gas: Coil Tightening
- American Shale: Life in Trump Era
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2017, prospects for 2018
- Gazprom in Internal, External Gas Markets: How to Share Gas ‘Pie’
- Russian Oil & Gas in 2025: Picture of Future
- Fiscal Innovations: from Tax Manoeuvre to New Experiments
- Petrochemistry: Rocky Road to Advanced Processing
- World LNG market: Russia, its main competitors
- Three years under sanctions: their influence on Russia’s fuel and energy sector
- Asia market: potential of Russian oil and gas exports to the East
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
- Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
- The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
- Main regulators of oil and gas battles
- Middle East: an earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons
- Life under sanctions or is there light at the end of the import substitution tunnel
- Forgotten shale: development of unconventional natural gas production, potential of North American gas exports
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2015, prospects for 2016
- Gazprom: the life in the epoch of sanctions, the turn towards the East, growing domestic competition
- The shale oil revolution in the USA, its influence on the industry
- Natural gas motor fuel: will the balance on the domestic market really change?
- Tax maneuver: fiscal policy in the oil and gas sector, prospects of changes
- Non-residents in Russia: complexity of conflict, possibilities
- The Asian gas market: is there room for Russia?
- Russian oil and gas sector under sanctions: main threats to the sector
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2014, prospects for 2015
- Gazprom: breakout strategy
- State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: struggle continues
- Managing oil and gas sector: decision-making
- Dragon hunting: Russia fighting its way to oriental markets
- Different approaches towards Russian oil industry: search for strategic development vector
- Russia on the LNG market: is there response to old and new competitors?
- State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2013, prospects for 2014
- Gazprom during Putin`s latest tenure
- Oil refining: huge plans
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square
- Search for New Taxation of Russian Oil and Gas Industry
- Eastern energy policy of Russia
- Development of offshore projects: words or deeds?
- Russia in struggle for European gas market
- State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2012, prospects for 2013
- Gazprom in turbulence
- Domestic market of energy sources
- Central Asia and Caspian region: struggle becoming tougher
- Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy
- New system of managing oil and gas industry
- Arctic and other offshore projects in Russia
- Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine
- State regulation in the oil and gas sector in 2011 and prospects for 2012
- The Present and Future of Gazprom
- State management in the oil and gas sector: Last autumn of current political cycle
- Central Asia and Caspian Region: Problems of Development and Transportation of Hydrocarbons
- Export Strategy of Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector
- Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector
- New Legal and Fiscal Procedures in the Oil and Gas Industry
- Prospects of Third Legislative Package Implementation, Future of European Gas Market
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2010, Outlooks for 2011
- Gazprom after Crisis: What Dreams May Come
- Nonresidents in the Russian Oil and Gas Sector: New Window of Opportunity?
- State System of Administrating the Oil and Gas Sector
- Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
- Anti-Crisis Policy in the Oil and Gas Sector And Its Consequences
- Western and Eastern Vectors of the Russian Oil and Gas Sector Development
- “Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2009 and Outlooks for 2010
- Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects
- Emergence of a Putin-sponsored Oil and Gas Aristocracy: Clans at War for Property
- Offshore Wars and Distribution of New Oil and Gas Blocks
- Russian gas export routes: pipes and gas carriers
- State oil and gas sector management system: first year in new format
- New Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Industry
- Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009
- Domestic Market of Energy Resources: Current State and Future Prospects
- Global Market of Energy Resources: Main Development Trends and the Role of Russian Companies
- Nationalisation and Privatisation: Two Industry Development Tendencies
- War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia
- New Configuration of Political Power and the Oil and Gas Industry Management System
- Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?
- Statutory Framework of the Oil and Gas Industry
- Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008
- The Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES and the New Gas and Electricity Pricing Patterns
- Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors
- The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project
- The Big Trade: Russian Companies Competing for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies Seeking to Enter Upstream Projects
- Gazprom: are there Limits to the Growth?
- Pipeline Wars and New Routes of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia
- Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation and Interim Results in 2024. Outlook for 2025
A new government was formed in Russia in spring 2024. Sergey Tsivilyov became Energy Minister. The first six months of the new government’s regulation of the fuel and energy sector are already past, which enables drawing the first analytical conclusions. Therefore, interim production results for 2024 have a special place in this research. We analyse the past year in two papers at once, as has become a tradition already. The gas industry is considered in a separate report. Meanwhile, we focus on oil here. The report’s special value lies in the data of our own oil export estimation model.Northern Logistics Route: Should One Expect a Breakthrough?
The Northern Sea Route and the Arctic in general were made a state priority even before the conflict in Ukraine. The key question is: can nice talk about the NSR as a profitable and strategic route and about Russia’s return to the Arctic be converted into actual breakthroughs making it possible to carry out at least the executive’s own plans? The strategic content concerning the NSR is relatively new, but many problems are old.Current Status of Russian Oil Exports
Getting over the 2022-2024 sanctions is the most important test for the Russian oil industry. After the US, United Kingdom, EU, and G7 introduced a ban on buying Russian oil and petroleum products (with some exceptions) and the price cap mechanism, Russia managed to find alternative sale options in countries that are now commonly called the “Global South”. However, it is important to consider exports in detail. This is what we do in the new NESF report.Green and Climate Agenda: Reset Attempt
In spite of dramatic worsening of relations with the West, the subject of climate has not vanished from Russian economic plans. Environmental issues have even topped the list of declared problems.Government 2024: New Configuration of Regulators
While the result of the presidential election in Russia was absolutely predictable, further moves forming new government agencies were more intriguing. Eventually, on the one hand, it would seem that Putin chose to avoid radical decisions on the civilian part of the Cabinet. Prime Minister Mishustin kept his post and almost all deputy prime ministers did. On the other, there are still meaningful changes. First of all, the Ministry of Energy got a new head. This alone deserves special attention.All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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