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Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?

Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?

Gazprom is still the top Russian fuel & energy company. And it is the main company for Vladimir Putin, who remains the main player in the Russian politics and energy industry even though he has chosen to become prime minister.

Now that Putin has been replaced by the Kremlin’s controller of the gas monopoly, its chairman of the directors’ board Dmitry Medvedev, and Putin has promised to assume PM office, political environment does not seem to change much. Nevertheless, the corporation is facing serious objective challenges, from production issues to volatile relations with foreign partners. More especially as the turf war between the dominating Russian power clans is threatening to escalate with new force.

The new study draws results of Gazprom’s work under Putin the president and estimates future development of the main Russian company under Putin the prime minister and Medvedev the president.

It dwells on the following subjects:

  • Possible reshuffle in Gazprom’s management structures

    • Dmitry Medvedev’s departure from the board of directors and arrival of new players
    • Arrival of Zubkov and his role
    • The fate of Chief Executive Miller and his team
    • Possible future relations with Putin’s Cabinet of Ministers
    • Intertwining of clans’ interests in Gazprom
  • Production challenges

    • The threat of gas deficit
    • Consequences of gas prices’ liberalization
    • Transition to long-term contracts
    • The fate of new projects
    • The Eastern Program and the lack of a gas schema
  • Transit challenges

    • «Central Asian Cartel» formation
    • Political crisis in Ukraine and risks for Gazprom.
  • Corporation’s export strategy

    • «Going West» instead of partnership with China
    • Challenges of the energy dialogue between Russia and the USA
  • Medium future projections

The contents of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. Gazprom after the Presidential Election 3
1.1. New Board of Directors and the Miller Team’s Destiny 3
1.2. Administrative Competition with Rosneft Growing Fiercer 7
1.3. Development Prospects for the Company’s Oil Business 11
1.4. Outcomes of Gazprom’s Expansion into the Power Industry and Development Prospects for this Line of Business of the Monopoly 12
1.5. Tax ‘Paradise’ for Gazprom 14
Chapter 2. Production Issues for the Russian Gas Sector 17
2.1. Difficulty Ensuring the Gas Balance in Russia 17
2.2. Position of Independent Producers 23
2.3. Liberalisation of Gas Prices and Gazprom’s Investment Plans 24
Chapter 3. Gazprom in the Former Soviet Union. Difficulties Relating to Control of Gas Transit to Europe 29
3.1. Overall Situation in the Former Soviet Republics’ Gas Markets 29
3.2. Emergence of Central Asia Gas Cartel 31
3.3. ‘Gas Wars’ with Ukraine 35
3.4. Belarusian Front: So Far So Good 39
Chapter 4. Gazprom Export Strategy. Prospects for Entering New Markets 41
4.1. 1 Difficulties of Energy Dialogue with Europe. Prospects for an ‘Organisation of Gas Exporting Countries’ 44
4.2. Nord and South Streams: A Clamp for Europe or Reliable Gas Supply? 47
4.3 Struggle for North Africa 50
4.4. Chinese Front 51
Chapter 5. Forecast of Developments 53
5.1. Hierarchy of Control over Gazprom 53
5.2. Gazprom Development Strategy: From Acquisitions to Large-scale Investment in Production 54
5.3. Acquisition Prospects 55
Date of issue May 12, 2008

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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