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Gazprom on Path to New Reality

Gazprom on Path to New Reality

Many saw the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s new presidential term as a window of opportunity for passing big decisions on restructuring of the gas market. The formation of a new government and media attacks on the Gazprom management were aimed at putting on the political agenda the issue of liberalisation of gas export and divestment of gas pipelines.

The beginning of export from, and accelerated commissioning of the capacities of, the Yamal LNG project and growth in the capitalisation of Novatek triggered a new phase of the fight for Gazprom’s export revenue and production assets. Especially considering that the resources available to the independent producers themselves prevent them even from maintaining gas production within reach of the Unified Gas Supply System, not to mention intensive expansion.

However, radical views on the development of the gas industry are countered by the need to ensure trouble-free gas supply to households and the national economy; Gazprom’s successes in export; and the carrying out of major infrastructure projects from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea to the Sea of Okhotsk. So the fight continues.

Read about these and other processes in the new NESF report.

The report contains the following sections:

  • Gazprom in the domestic gas market

    • What the ratio between Gazprom and the independents looks like
    • Supply dynamics and change of the Gazprom share
  • Export to Europe: towards a new record

    • It is already obvious that supply to Europe will reach a new all-time high. However, competition is on the rise too. The entire year Europe has discussed the arrival of American LNG and celebrated the completion of the TANAP gas pipeline
  • The problem of Ukraine 2019: is a new transit war possible?

    • This problem will have to be solved in conditions of fierce political fighting in Ukraine itself; increasing pressure of sanctions imposed by the US and UK; and international arbitration.
  • Gazprom’s financial position

    • An investment boom in an era of sanctions
  • A medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Gazprom in Domestic Gas Market: Independents Slow Down 4
1.1 Gas production within reach of the UGSS: a Gazprom comeback 4
1.2 Is the fight for the domestic market over? 9
1.3 Gazprom’s pricing and incomes of in the domestic market 12
1.4 Exchange trade in gas in Russia 13
Chapter 2. Gas Export by Pipeline: Peak in Europe, Decline in Turkey 17
2.1 Gazprom in the European Union markets: towards new records 18
2.2 Gazprom in the Turkish market: turbulence as the strategic position is consolidated 24
2.3 Gazprom in the former Soviet Union 27
Chapter 3. The problem of Ukraine 2019: is a new transit war possible 34
3.1 Stockholm arbitration decisions on the gas contracts and their implications 34
3.2 Ukrainian transit after 2020 37
Chapter 4. Gazprom’s Eastern Projects: Growth of Power of Siberia 43
4.1 China’s gas hunger 43
4.2 Prospects for developing supply of Russian pipeline gas to China 46
Chapter 5. Gazprom’s Financial Position: Investment Boom in Era of Sanctions 51
5.1. Accelerated income growth 51
5.2. Gazprom’s capital investment and investment programme for 2016 and 2017 53
5.3. Gearing rises but remains reasonable 56
Chapter 6. Medium-term Forecast of Developments 58
Date of release: December 30, 2018

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued
Arctic: Soviet-type Gigantomania or Breakthrough Project?
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
Gazprom on Path to New Reality
Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
The subject of taxation became the absolute hit of 2018. The government once again decided to rewrite the rules of the game. President Putin’s new inauguration decree served as the main pretext. It turned out that about 8 trillion roubles extra was necessary for the new national projects announced. The Cabinet did not take long to decide where the funds should be taken. The result was acceleration of the so-called tax manoeuvre started as far back as 1 January 2015. It suggested shifting the tax burden to the wellhead: the effect on the state budget of gradual abandonment of the export duty will be more than compensated for by quicker growth in mineral resources extraction tax (MRET). The laws on tax reform have already gone through the parliament and will take effect as of next year. This means nothing good for companies.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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