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Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors

Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors

Election campaign in Russia is nearing the final stage. Public political parties compete for State Duma seats. However, the real rivalry is between the «shadow parties» – the elite clans in the Putin’s circle.

Struggle for oil and gas assets is for them the real fundraising campaign. The powerhouses are raising money to promote their president candidates.

The incumbent head of state has so far adhered to the principle of divided control of the oil and gas industry between various clans – eventually we may see two candidates – an «oil» candidate and a «gas» candidate. In the mean time, there is no unanimity inside the clans, which adds intrigue to the president election.

The influence of the election campaign on the oil and gas industry is the subject that the new study by the National Energy Security Fund.

The study dwells on the following questions

  • The current status of property repartition in the oil and gas industry

    • Growing appetites of Gazprom and Rosnef
    • Who the state-owned companies rely on in the election game
  • Victims, present and future

    • Finishing off with Yukos
    • Strike on TNK-BP
    • Criminal case against RussNeft – motives and consequences
  • What awaits Lukoil, Tatneft, Itera, Nortgaz and other large companies in the industry

    • Possible survival strategies
  • Changes to oil and gas industry management

    • Impending layoffs in the government and their influence on the industry’s development
  • The new State Duma and the interests of oil and gas firms

  • Forecast of how the situation will be developing during the election campaign

The content of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Alignment of Forces ahead of the Final Race for Power 4
1.1. Key competitors 4
Chapter 2. Assets Sharing 8
2.1. Offensive Philosophy of the «Security Officials» Clan 8
2.2. Offensive Philosophy of the «Jurists» Clan 13
2.3. Offensive Philosophy of the «Russians» Clan 13
Chapter 3. Potential Victims. Who Will Survive Power Transition? 17
3.1. LUKOIL - the Biggest of the Unharmed 18
3.2. TNK-BP: Along the Same Path 26
3.3. Tatneft: Agonizing Suspense 31
3.4. Independent Gas Companies: Will They Be Left Alone? 32
Conclusion 39
Supplement 1. Main Events of 2007 for Gazprom 40
Supplement 2. Main Events 2007 for Rosneft 49
Supplement 3. Main Events Related to Property Redistribution in the Oil and Gas Industry of Russia (May-September) 52
Date of publication October 8, 2007

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
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The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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