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Petrochemistry: Rocky Road to Advanced Processing

Petrochemistry: Rocky Road to Advanced Processing

For years now we have heard the mantra that it is wrong to export crude oil and unprocessed natural gas. That they, in fact, ought to be processed and that finished products ought to be sold. This task, however, is not that trivial. The market for petrochemistry is a separate world and one has to understand if there is a place for our products there. The question is not only if there is enough production capacity; the trouble is there might not be unoccupied market niches.

The new NESF report provides an understanding of what the structure of this industry is like today; exactly what products are in demand; what will be in demand in the near future; and whether Russia’s strategy is correct.

In the report you will find answers to the following questions:

  • The structure of the global market for petrochemistry

    • Key primary products and demand structure: propylene, ethylene, chlorine, p-Xylene, and others
    • Basic supply chains
    • Key players and users
  • The most promising segments of natural gas-based petrochemistry, including methanol and olefins

    • Supply chains and creation of value
    • Supply and demand
  • The market for industrial gases:

    • Key producers
    • How capacious and interesting is it?
  • Helium market:

    • Are the expectations correct?
    • As Russian projects in the East are discussed, the subject of helium is raised very often. The idea of helium export accompanies the project to supply gas to China and to develop the Kovyktinskoye field. But is there a place for Russian helium in the market?
  • Forecast: what does Russia intend to produce and is the target well-chosen?

    • An assessment of the adequacy of the largest petrochemical projects
    • The influence of low prices on their cost-effectiveness
    • Will we fit in the market?
    • Will export to China live up to expectations?

Contents of the report

INTRODUCTION 3
INDUSTRIAL GASES MARKET OVERVIEW 4
Helium market: Current Status & Long-term Trends. Russia’s Place 12
MARKET FOR PETROCHEMICALS: OVERVIEW & KEY TRENDS 22
OLEFINS & POLYOLEFINS MARKET OVERVIEW 28
Key Trends on Ethylene Market 28
Analysis of Ethylene Production Costs. Market Forecast 31
POLYOLEFINS: POLYETHYLENE & POLYPROPYLENE MARKET OVERVIEW 34
RUSSIA IN MARKET FOR KEY MONOMERS & POLYMERS 41
Structure of Raw Materials and Pyrolysis Capacity in Russia: Current and Forecast 41
Key Petrochemical Projects in Russia: Forecast for Capacity Growth and Development of Key Clusters 44
Market Overview for Key Polymers in Russia 48
Prospects for Export of Key Polymers: Two Scenarios to 2030 52
US ROLE IN OLEFINS & POLYOLEFINS MARKET 58
KEY TRENDS ON METHANOL MARKET 65
MTO/MTP Technologies: Impact of Their Economics on Methanol’s Future 67
Russia’s Position on Global Methanol Market 70
Methanol Market Development Prospects 75
IRAN’S AMBITIOUS PLANS: FICTION OR REALITY? 77
RUSSIA’S PROSPECTS IN PETROCHEMICAL MARKET: MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST 84
Date of release: October 30, 2017

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
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The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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