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State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017

We traditionally conclude the year with our final report that sums up main events and tendencies of the outgoing year.

The report analyzes preliminary production results, main state decisions concerning the sector, the struggle for property, changes in export policies, and, certainly, forecasts of the sector development in the medium-term perspective.

You will find detailed answers to the following questions:

  • Production results of the year

    • The record high oil output: leaders and outsiders in the sector
    • How possible is it to grow in the repressive tax regime?
  • The OPEC agreement

    • Will Russia observe new liabilities?
    • Who will be the most affected? The gas market?
    • Stagnation in production amid decline in demand and growth in exports
  • The Rosneft stake privatization story

    • The case of selling 19.5% turns into a political earthquake
    • The struggle for Bashneft, the arrest of minister Ulyukayev, the failure of a buyback plan, and the selling of the stake to a Qatari fund and Glencore for Gazprombank money – everything turned out to be a very intricately woven plot
    • Who has won and who has lost? Who is behind the unexpected outcome? Is this case over?
  • Struggle for subsoil resources

    • Distribution of licenses
    • Battles for offshore deposits
    • Activities of Rosgeologia
  • Export strategies of Russia

    • Exports to Europe
    • The movement towards Asia
    • Growth in oil supplies to China
  • Fiscal regime

    • Disappointed expectations, the latest fiscal surprises in 2016
  • Forecast

    • What should be expected in 2017?

Contents of the report:

INTRODUCTION 3
Chapter 1. PRODUCTION RESULTS OF THE YEAR 5
Chapter 2. STRUGGLE FOR PROPERTY 27
Chapter 3. STRUGGLE FOR MINERAL RESOURCES 37
Chapter 4. LOOKING FOR TAXATION BALANCE 45
Chapter 5. EXPORT STRATEGIES OF RUSSIA: ON THE WAY TO A NEW WORLD 54
FORECAST 60
Date of release: January 23, 2017

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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