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The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project

The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project

President Vladimir Putin has pledged not to run for the third consecutive presidency. However, it is obvious that he will not disappear from the Russian politics and economics. What will Putin take up after he leaves the Kremlin? One of the possible scenarios is a job in the energy sector. This is an interesting, not too confusing and promising field. Oil and gas are the Russia’s main cards and possibly the Putin’s key to the global hydrocarbon market. Hence is the big significance of the Putin’s energy project.

It is possible that Putin intends to establish an energy platform for himself before he has to go and minimize the risk of getting kicked down after the next presidential election. Hiring former European politicians, Putin understands perfectly that the «life after presidency» will depend on the ability to control significant economic assets. How does he see the industry after his presidency expires? What will be his role in the oil and gas industry? The new research by the Energy Security Fund tries to give answers to these questions.

The research studies the possible scenarios of the industry development «after Putin»:

  • Establishment of an energy mega corporation for Putin to run

    • Possibilities of state companies Gazprom and Rosneft merger
    • Associated political risks
    • The possibility that the union will also take over Transneft, Sovkomflot, and Novoship
    • The fate of private oil companies
  • Mechanical scenario of the Fuel & Energy Industry development

    • Putin remains in politics, Gazprom and Rosneft continue bloating
    • The two corporations are running out of opportunities for growth and their interests may collide
  • Putin’s opportunities to become chief of a multinational energy business

    • Putin and the «Gas OPEC»
    • The possibility of an alliance between Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

The content of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. Impartial and Personal Goals of Putin in the Oil and Gas Industry 4
1.1. General Issues of the Industry 4
1.2. Putin’s Personal Goals in the Energy Business 20
Chapter 2. Basic Career Scenarios for Putin after March 2008 22
2.1. Build a «National Pride» 22
2.2. Head of the Gas Giant 26
2.3. Mechanical Scenario29
2.4. Transition to the Above-Nation Level 33
2.5. Highly Unrealistic Scenario - Leader of New Eurasian Oil and Gas Coalition 37
Conclusion 41
Date of publicationVolume
August 6, 200741 pages

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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