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Gazprom in Internal, External Gas Markets: How to Share Gas ‘Pie’

Gazprom in Internal, External Gas Markets: How to Share Gas ‘Pie’

The position of Gazprom is quite controversial. On the one hand, after several years of decline in production because of a rise in competition in the domestic market and negative trends in foreign markets, Gazprom is again increasing gas production. It sets record after record in the European market as it meets additional demand.

The attacks of independent producers demanding reform of the industry or at least access to export by pipeline have been repelled once again. The company has got a certain respite.

On the other hand, political resistance to Gazprom in Europe only increases. The final battle for the position in the future European market is beginning.

The opponents are doing all they can to stop or slow down the construction of Nord Stream 2. Neither do the internal gas producers intend to give up. Besides, Gazprom’s financial position has seriously worsened.

All this makes the situation in the gas industry quite intriguing.

In our report you will find answers to the following questions:

  • What will happen to the domestic gas market?

    • The subject of domestic gas market reform remains a dominant one on the fuel and energy sector development agenda. The independents want to get access to the infrastructure and ideally, to have the transport and production divisions spun off from Gazprom. Victory in the 2017 battles does not mean victory in the entire war.
    • After the presidential election, the independents will inevitably mount a new attack.
    • What model of the domestic gas market will Russia switch to after all?
    • The report describes the current market situation; the successes and problems of the independent producers; the fight for regulated prices; and the development of exchange trade.
  • What awaits Gazprom’s export?

    • Gazprom has launched grandiose construction. Three new projects at once must be completed by the end of 2019: Nord Stream 2, Turkish Stream, and Power of Siberia.
    • Gazprom hopes to start gas supply by pipeline to China and keep the current level of export to Europe while changing its logistics. However, these plans have political opponents, and rivals in the same sector.
  • Does Gazprom have answers to its worsening financial position?

    • Major investment projects imply serious expenditure. One also has to take account of the relatively low gas prices in Europe and growth in the state-imposed tax burden. All this requires that the management take active measures to both attract foreign loans and improve spending efficiency.
    • We will check how the corporation copes with these challenges.
  • How has the balance of forces in the corporation’s top management changed and what is to be expected in the near future?

    • The report describes the fight in the export division and changes in the procurement system.

Contents of the report:

Introduction 4
Chapter 1. Staff Reshuffles, Management Reorganisation in Gazprom 5
1.1 Transformation of the export division 5
1.2 Engineering and the fight for procurement 12
1.3 The Board of Directors and top management 13
Chapter 2. Gazprom in Domestic Gas Market 15
2.1 Demand and pricing 16
2.2 A pilot project to liberalise prices 20
2.3 Exchange trade in gas: a one-person show 22
2.4 The fight for regulated prices 26
2.5 Development of gas supply and autogas 29
Chapter 3. External Markets: Time of Records, Decisive Battles for Transit 33
3.1 Gazprom in the European Union markets: towards new records 34
3.2 Gazprom in the Turkish market: leave to stay 38
3.3 Key gas transport projects 40
3.4 Gazprom in the former Soviet Union 48
3.5 The European Commission’s antimonopoly investigation 52
3.6 The fight for the liberalisation of gas export from Russia by pipeline 53
Chapter 4. Gazprom in the East: China Nearer and Nearer 55
4.1 An assessment of the Chinese market 55
4.2 Development of resources in Eastern Siberia and Yakutia and Power of Siberia-1 58
4.3 Amur Gas Processing Plant 62
4.4 Power of Siberia-2 and gas supply to China from Sakhalin 65
4.5 Expansion of Sakhalin-2 vs Far Eastern LNG 66
4.6 Pipeline Gas Supply to India, Japan, and South Korea 69
Chapter 5. Gazprom’s financial position: how to make both ends meet 71
5.1 Incomes lagging behind expenses 71
5.2 Gazprom’s capital investment and investment programme for 2016 and 2017 74
5.3 Dividend policy: a balance between the appetite of the government, the interests of investors, and growing investment 77
5.4 Tax pressure continues 80
5.5 Gearing rises but remains reasonable 82
Chapter 6. A medium-term forecast 88
Date of release: January 25, 2018

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook
Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
New Logistics of Russian Oil Business
Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
Outlook for Russian LNG Industry

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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