Pipeline Wars and New Routes of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia

Recently, impetuous construction of new pipelines has been unfolding in Russia. It would seem that all the difficulties with oil and gas export will be settled for good. In reality, however, the number of issues is growing. Will Russia’s level of production be enough to fill the new pipes, will the western and the eastern export routes compete with each other for the raw materials, is the strategy to liquidate the “Slav go-betweens” – Ukraine and Belarus – realistic – these and other problems are brought up in the new survey by the National Energy Security Fund.

The paper dwells on the following subjects:

• Diversification of export – myth or reality?

  Many consider construction of oil and gas pipelines to Asia as a possibility to expand export geography. In reality, it may turn out to be an alternative supply route that may lead not to diversification but to redirection of the export flow. The current level of oil and gas production shows that in the medium-term future Russia’s raw stock will be insufficient to secure fully-fledged supplies in both directions. To fill the eastern pipes, one will have to take oil and gas from the western mains. Here Russia comes to geopolitical dilemma. It is possible that it will become the key question during the «big elections» in 2007-2008.

• Projects of expansion of supplies to the West

  • The «northern» and the «southern» gates to Europe
  • The strategy to refuse from Ukraine and Belarus as transit countries: economic and political consequences
  • Outlook of the Baltic Pipeline System’s expansion and construction of oil pipe to the Kharyaga field
  • The Baltic states as the zone of influence of the Russian oil trading business
  • Geopolitical obstacles for the realization of the North Stream project
  • «Trilateral Gas Union» between Russia, Germany, and Italy – what stands on its way
  • The US market – a dream or reality?
  • Does the Shtokman project have potential and are LNG supplies to the USA possible?
  • The main lobbyists and adversaries of the western export route

• Competition between projects of southern routes to Europe

  • Russian routes against trans-Caspian projects
  • Azerbaijan and Georgia as a transport alternative for Russia
  • The role of Turkey in the battle of the transit projects
  • The outlook of the Blue Stream’s expansion and construction of Burgas-Alexandropulis oil pipeline
  • The Future of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium

• Proposals on eastern supplies

  • The main lobbyists for redirection of exports to China
  • East Siberia – Pacific Ocean pipe – why the construction is so slow?
  • Several official bodies sabotage the eastern route.
  • The real position of Transneft
  • Sakhalin – the struggle between the Chinese and Japan-Korea export scenario

• The change of the export management system

  • Possibilities of Transneft and Transnefteprodukt merger
  • The problems behind the integration of sea and river transportation
  • The swelling of Sovkomflot and the fight for control of the company

• Medium-term forecast

The content of the report: