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Central Asia and Caspian region: struggle becoming tougher

Central Asia and Caspian region: struggle becoming tougher

The Caspian region and Central Asia are almost the most important feasible hope of Europe for diversifying its oil and gas imports.

The European Commission is fully determined to make agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in order to reduce gas dependence on Russia, as it is more and more vividly considered by Brussels as problem rather than solution.

However, the economic situation in the EU and markets in the region does not promise a simple life to new suppliers. Contrary to the will of Brussels Moscow is launching construction of South Stream to strengthen its positions in the region. China, a relatively new player, is becoming more active in this game, as it clearly wants to be a leader in Central Asia.

The report analyses progress in exploring the resource base, problems of infrastructure and commercial relations, as well as geopolitical aspects of development of struggle for Caspian gas resources.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Azerbaijan as key hope of Europe

    • The resource potential of the country
    • Standing of gas projects
    • Choice of transportation solutions
    • Energy relations with Russia
    • Marketing strategy
  • Gas from Central Asia

    • Problems of the gas production sector development in Turkmenistan
    • Real export potential of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
    • Strategies of main buyers
    • Gas transportation infrastructure development and possibilities of supplies from Central Asia
  • Iran and Iraq as potential gas suppliers to EU market

    • Development of production potential
    • Main problems and options for their solution
    • Political risks
    • Pipeline projects, their problems
  • Struggle of Russia for Southeastern Europe market

    • South Stream project – successes and difficulties, price of pipeline promotion
    • Policies towards competitors from Central Asia and Caspian region
  • Situation on markets in Southeastern Europe and Turkey

    • Current and forecasted consumption level
    • Price conjuncture
  • Medium-term forecast

    • Geopolitical situation, escalation of gas conflicts in the region

The contents of the report:

Chapter 1. Azerbaijani Project 3
 1.1. Resource Base, Production 3
 1.2. Gas Transportation Infrastructure 7
 1.3. Gas Transportation Infrastructure 11
Chapter 2. Central Asian Gas 14
 2.1. Turkmenistan 14
 2.2. Uzbekistan 18
 2.3 Kazakhstan 19
 2.4. Development of Gas Transportation Infrastructure, Possibilities of Exports From Central Asia 20
Chapter 3. Iran, Iraq 27
 3.1. Vicious Iranian circle 27
 3.2. LNG projects 28
 3.3. Islamic Gas Pipelines 29
 3.4. Iraq: Domestic Market Vs. Exports 31
Chapter 4. Struggle of Russia for Southeastern Europe Market 34
 4.1. Russia’s Gas Interests and Policy in Caspian Region 34
 4.2. South Stream – Russia’s Main Transportation Stake 35
 4.3. Turkey Gives Its Go-Ahead 39
 4.4. Project costs 40
Chapter 5. Situation SSGS Markets in Southeastern Europe and Turkey 42
 5.1. Turkey. 42
 5.2. Bulgaria–Romania–Hungary–Austria 43
 5.3. Greece, Former Yugoslavia Republics 46
 5.4. Former Yugoslavia 48
 5.5. Italy 48
 5.6. Ukraine 49
Chapter 6. Forecast. Geopolitical Situation, Escalation of Gas Conflicts in the Region 51
 6.1. Legal Status of Caspian Sea, Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline 51
 6.2. Azerbaijan – Turkmenistan 52
 6.3. Iran: Pandora’s Box 53
 6.4. China vs. USA 54
Date of issue October 8, 2012

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