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Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector

Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector

Preparations for the elections are accompanied by quite serious changes in the structure of property of oil and gas companies. After the elections this process will accelerate further. A plan of privatization in the next three years is already drafted; it will directly or indirectly affect assets in the oil and gas sector. There is also a less explicit “creeping privatization”, e.g. when the state transfers licenses on beneficial conditions to private companies removing other bidders from tenders. The number of such cases is growing. Privatization is an old goal of major administrative and political groups and the means of minimizing political risks in the period of enhanced political turbulence. Liberal experts have formed a firm opinion that the state presence in the sector is growing. In reality there is an opposite process. The matter is that new owners of assets are loyal people.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Main beneficiaries of privatization.

  • Privatization plan

    • What will the government sell for sure and what is likely to go on sale in the next three to six years
    • Prospects of selling Rosneft and Gazprom Neft
  • Role of foreign companies in privatization

    • Transfer of licenses to private companies on preferential terms with the aim to sell stakes in them to nonresidents
    • Cases of Trebs and Titov and Yamal projects
  • Possibilities of privatization in the gas industry

    • Prospects of emergence of new “Novateks”
  • The future of large private firms

    • Strategies of LUKOIL and TNK-BP, prospects of changing the companies’ shareholder structure
    • The future of TNK-BP in the context of the Rosneft-BP case
    • A possibility of disclosing real shareholders in Surgutneftegas
  • AFK Sistema’s involvement in the oil business

    • Reasons and future results
    • Consolidation of Bashneft and Russneft

The contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Gazprom: from Gathering to Asset Distribution 5
Consolidation of NOVATEATEK Shares 6
Transfer of Gazprombank to Bank Rossiya Clan 9
Story of Four Yamal Deposits 12
Sale of SeverEnergia 13
Sibneftegaz Story 16
Nortgaz Future 18
Sale of SIBUR Holding 19
Sale of Other Non-Core Assets 21
Role of Nonresidents in Privatization in Russia. Fate of TNK-BP 24
Role of Nonresidents in Privatization 24
BP-Rosneft Deal, Future of TNK-BP 27
Lukoil: diverse developments 34
Sistema in Oil business: New Gatherer of Assets 42
The “Putin Aristocracy” as Important Consequence of Privatization of Property 47
Siloviki Families 48
Families of Bank Rossiya Clan 49
Forecast of Developments 53
Date of issue: June 7th, 2011

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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